April 26, 2005

US beef production forecasts down

US meat-consulting firm, Steiner Consulting, has lowered its latest quarterly supply forecast, and predicting total US beef production to reach 11.2 million tonnes, similar to last year's levels. The lower number is primarily due to the delayed re-opening of the US-Canadian border to cattle.

The number of US cattle available for slaughter is projected to remain stable in 2005, as the herd is currently in the process of rebuilding. This continued steady cattle supply and firm demand are forecast to push prices to record levels in 2005. 

Live steer prices have already reached record highs for the first quarter and are forecast to average US$0.86 per pound, 2.9 percent higher than last year. Steiner has predicted that the tight female cattle supply will push domestic 90CL cow beef prices up 7.8 percent from last year, to US$1.48 per pound for 2005.

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) prediction for US beef production is higher than the Steiner estimates, at 11.6 million tonnes for 2005. The difference is due to the USDA's assumption that Canadian cattle under 30 months will be allowed to enter in the second quarter. Price expectations however are similar to the Steiner forecast.