April 23, 2012
Russia's 2012 production of its three main oilseeds (sunflower seeds, soy and rapeseed) is forecast at 11.2 million tonnes, 10% down from the bumper crop of 2011, but still the second largest oilseeds crop in Russian history.
Soy production is forecast to increase to 1.8 million tonnes from 1.75 million tonnes in 2011, and the increase will be mostly due to expanded sown area in the Far East, close to the Chinese border. Rapeseed production is forecast at 0.9 million tonnes, 14% below the last year, as the high-yielding winter rapeseed crop in Southern European Russia (especially in Stavropol kray-the major producer of winter rapeseed) has been damaged by winter frosts.
After Russia joins the WTO, export duties on oilseeds will have to be eliminated (soy) or reduced (sunflower seed, rapeseed), although there is a three to four transition period for this to occur. As a result, although long-term, these could have very significant impacts on the sector and trade, it is not yet clear what impacts there will be in the short term in marketing year (MY) 2012-13.
FAS/Moscow forecasts exports of sunflower seeds at 0.2 million tonnes, compared with the estimated 0.35 million tonnes in MY 2011-12, when bumper crop and low prices stimulated seeds exports despite duties. Meanwhile, Russia farmers will continue increasing production and exports of such oilseeds as linseed (for oil), which is not subject to export duties.
The Russian poultry industry is continuing its expansion, leading to increased demand for protein feeds. Swine and dairy industries are also recovering, and large government support programmes have led to a greater concentration of production at large industrial complexes, which use more protein feeds than middle- and small-size farms and private households.
FAS/Moscow forecasts that despite a smaller sunflower seed crop, oilseeds crush will remain at the last year's level of 11.9 million tonnes due to increased imports of soy. Production of sunflower seed meal is forecast at 2.8 million tonnes, 0.1 million tonnes less than in MY 2011-12, while production of soy meal is expected to increase by 0.2 million tonnes to 2.2 million tonnes. Exports of sunflower seed meal are expected to decrease only slightly in MY 2012-13 to 1.1 million tonnes, while imports of soy meal are forecast to remain at 0.6 million tonnes.
Sunflower seeds remain the primary oilseed crop in Russia, and crushers' main product is vegetable oil. FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia's total vegetable oil production in MY 2012-13 at 4.0 million tonnes, the same as in MY 2011-12. Sunflower seed oil still remains the main vegetable oil used by domestic food and other industries, while imported palm oil remains the second largest oil consumed.
Russia continues to export large volumes of sunflower seed oil, both non-refined and refined, while importing large quantities of palm oil. FAS/Moscow estimates sunflower seed oil exports in MY 2012-13 at one million tonnes, only a slight decline from 2011-12, as a result of lower production. Palm oil imports are estimated at 530,000 million tonnes in MY 2012-13, a 5% decline due to possible changes in the technical regulations for some processed dairy products. Exports of rapeseed oil are forecasted to continue steady at 0.2 million tonnes, mostly for bio-fuel production in the EU.