April 22, 2020

 

 

Low pork supplies projected in the second quarter of the year is expected to push prices to peak levels in September as the country aims to resume domestic swine production affected by African swine fever (ASF), reported Reuters.

 

Yang Zhenhai, head of the husbandry bureau under the agriculture ministry said low pork supplies are projected in the second quarter due to a low production base, import uncertainty and steadily increased consumption.

 

In October 2019, pork prices hit 53.79 RMB (~US$7.59) / kg, three times higher than in October 2018 as domestic supplies were scarce due to ASF.

 

However, prices have progressively dropped since February as swine production recovers plus flat demand for the meat.

 

Based on a statement by Yang on the Ministry and Agriculture and Rural Affairs' website, by the end of March sow herds rose 2.8% in the country compared to February, as piglets also increased 7.3%.

 

But Yang said supplies remain low even as swine production resumes.

 

Pork output in China decreased 29% year-on-year over the January to March period, a sixth straight quarter of decline.

 

To plug the supply gap, China has introduced new measures to boost pork output increase meat supplies but the recent COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted efforts. Some of the measures include easing restrictions on live poultry markets and assisting egg sales.

 

Yang said higher pork consumption in the second half of the year could push pork prices up, even as the country's pork supply is projected to improve after July.

 

Yang added that the country will continue its battle against ASF in addition to building more swine farms as it aims to match pre-ASF production levels by the end of this year.

 

-    Reuters