CBOT soy prices up on spot market support

Soy СВОТ prices with May delivery increased again after receiving support from the spot market, where prices gained roughly US$12-15 per tonne.

Due to restrictions on soyoil imports from Argentina, in China the soy import estimate was raised to 4.3 million tonnes in April 2010 against the previous forecast of 3.6 million tonnes. In addition, rain in Brazil caused a delay in soy shipments. In China, the May import of soy is forecast at an all-time high of over 5 million tonnes.

Oil World predicts that the slow pace of sales of the new crop soy in Argentina and Brazil may support soy and soymeal prices. At the same time, expectations of a bumper soy crop in South America continue exerting a bearish impact and the present growth of soy prices may be a temporary trend.

Meanwhile, a bearish trend dominates the European rapeseed market. Matiff prices for May rapeseed delivery fell by EUR3 (US$4.02) per tonne down to EUR307.5 (US$412.7) per tonne. The prices were pressured by cheapening crude oil.

In Europe, most rape crops were not affected by the extremely cold winter and are developing satisfactorily. At the same time, this year's rapeseed crop will not reach the record values registered in 2009. This factor may decrease rapeseed crushing volumes in the new season.

Oil World estimates the 2010 EU rapeseed crop at 21 million tonnes against 21.52 million tonnes gathered in 2009. Rapeseed imports to the EU may expand to 3 million tonnes in MY 2010-11 against 2.35 million tonnes expected in MY 2009-10 to maintain crushing operations.

The USDA expects soy areas will shrink by 1% to 18.6 million hectares, and the soy output will approximate 50 million tonnes, nearly 4 million tonnes less than this year.