Russia's 2010 grain production seen lower
Russia's total grain production in marketing year 2010 is forecast to decrease by two million tonnes to 95 million tonnes due to a decrease in spring grains, according to a USDA attache report.
Estimates contained in attache reports are not official USDA data. The abstract of the attache report follows.
Production of wheat is forecast to decrease from 62 million tonnes in marketing year (MY) 2009 to 59 million tonnes. Barley production is forecast to decrease by 2% to 18 million tonnes, while corn production might increase by 29% to five million tonnes. Grain exports are forecast at 20 million tonnes, one million tonnes more than in MY 2009. The increase in exports may be attributed to the state-owned United Grain Company's export of intervention stocks. Grain carry-over stocks by the end of the year are forecast at 14 million tonnes, three million tonnes lower than at the beginning of year, but still high enough to keep domestic grain prices low.
Assuming normal weather conditions, total grain production in marketing year 2010 is forecast to decrease by 2.3 million tonnes to 94.7 million tonnes. Still, this will be the third largest grain crop in the last 16 years. The decrease is due to expected reduction in area sown to spring wheat, Russia's major grain crop. Winter grain area increased by 5% to 18.1- 18.3 million hectares, but winter losses will be higher than last year. By mid-March 2010 Russian Hydrometeorological Centre reported that 9% of the winter crop was in poor condition compared with only 5% in 2009. The reduction in spring area may be caused by low domestic wheat prices and farmers' expected switch to energy and protein rich fodder crops, such as corn, triticale, legumes, soy, rapeseeds. Given that sunflowerseeds gave farmers more stable income than grain in the last two years, farmers may also increase area sown to sunflowerseeds at the expense of wheat. However, this switch to sunflowerseeds will be limited by traditional crop rotation practices. Grain yields are expected to be close to the five-year average. Some farms improved seeds, machines, and agronomy practices before the economic crisis 2008-2009 and grain yields increased; however, the majority of Russian farms' harvests still depend on weather more than on other factors.
Significant year-to-year variations in yields of corn show that production of this crop in Russia still depends very much on weather. Russia has only limited area in Southern European Russia where farmers can get high and reliable yields. Expanding corn sown area to the Northern parts of Russia with unpredictable yields usually leads to significant decrease in average yield. If the weather is unfavourable, farmers at best can chop corn for green mass. As for millet, which is not the major Russian crop, farmers usually do not invest much in planting and cultivation of this crop, and yields again depend exclusively on weather conditions. It is the opposite situation for rice. One large Russian agribusiness company began investing in rice production in Krasnodar kray 3-4 years ago, and since then yields of rice began steadily improving.
Agricultural Minister Yelena Skrynnik reported at the end of March 2010, that area sown to grain will be the same as last year – 48 million hectares. This includes 18 million hectares sown to winter grains (5% increase from last fall) and 30.2 million hectares that will be sown to spring grain. This will be sufficient to meet the domestic demand for grain and to export approximately 20 million tonnes. However, the minister called for more diversification in production in 2010. She encouraged producers to increase production in energy rich grains, such as corn, and protein crops, such as soy and rapeseeds.
