April 18, 2022

More uncertainty over availability of grains due to war in Ukraine, states European Commission report

The war in Ukraine has significantly affected global agricultural markets and this has created more uncertainty over the future availability of grains and oilseeds, adding further instability to already tense markets, according to the European Commission's short-term outlook report.

The European Union is considerably self-sufficient in food, with a massive agri-food trade surplus. Nevertheless, there are concerns about affordability due to high market prices and inflationary trends.

Proposed measures to increase the EU’s arable crops production will allow farmers to increase their sowing area for maize, sunflowers and protein crops.

As a result, the 2022 EU harvest may be a very good one for cereals and for oilseeds, provided normal weather conditions prevail. EU cereal production is projected to reach 297.7 million tonnes for the 2022 harvest.

Together with a reduced demand for feed due to lower pigmeat production and reduced use of cereals for biofuel, this could help to soften the impact the expected lack of grain exports from Ukraine may have on global markets.

Exports of cereals are expected to increase by 14% this marketing year (until end of June), largely driven by an additional 5.6 million tonnes of soft wheat compared to the previous season. This may increase further after the 2022 summer harvest, with net exports of EU cereals potentially increasing by almost 40% to 41.4 million tonnes from July 2022 to June 2023 (2022/23 marketing year).

Oilseed prices have skyrocketed since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Oilseed production, however, is not a concern, as it was estimated to grow by 6.5% to 30.2 million tonnes this marketing year and projected to increase to 32.2 million tonnes in the coming marketing year.

- European Commission