April 17, 2025

China to get around three million tonnes of US soybeans despite tariffs

China is set to receive about three million metric tons of US soybeans in April-May, according to sources and shipping data, despite new higher tariffs on US products that are poised to choke off flows of China's largest US farm import item.

Most of the cargoes were purchased by state stockpiler Sinograin, said four sources familiar with the matter, which, they said, is likely to pay the higher duties but may nonetheless have to sell at a discount locally amid competition from cheaper beans from Brazil, the world's biggest grower.

"We don't expect cancellations or any major issues with these cargoes since a government company has made these purchases," said one of the sources, a Singapore-based trader at an international trading company which runs oilseed processing plants in China. "But they can, in no way sell US beans with the duty. They will have to absorb the duty."

With China the world's largest soybean importer and the United States, the second-largest grower of the oilseed, their escalating trade war threatens to disrupt global flows of crops as each side has ratcheted up trade levies.

The US exported US$12.84 billion worth of soybeans to China in 2024, according to US Census Bureau data.

In early March, China imposed a 10% duty on US soybean imports after US President Donald Trump announced a similar duty on Chinese goods.

More than 30 cargoes set to arrive in the coming weeks, totalling around two million tonnes, will be subject to that tariff, according to Reuters calculations based on Kpler data.

On April 4, China slapped an additional 34% levy on all US goods in response to US duties imposed on April 2. The calculations based on Kpler data show 15 vessels, carrying about 800,000 tonnes, are expected to arrive after May 13 and will therefore be subject to total tariffs of 44%.

Nearly 600,000 tonnes of US soybeans purchased during the marketing year ending in August 2025 had yet to be shipped as of March 27, according to US Department of Agriculture reports and analysts, and it remains unclear if those cargoes will be shipped or cancelled.

- Reuters