Russia's farm department is forecasting a grain harvest well ahead of analysts' forecasts and revealing upbeat hopes for oilseeds.

 

Yelena Skrynnik, the country's agriculture minister, said that this year's grain crop would come in at 97 million tonnes, in line with the 2009 harvest. "This will permit us to cover domestic needs and to preserve an exportable surplus of 20 million tonnes," Skrynnik said.

 

The figure, reflecting an estimate of plantings flat at 48 million hectares, trumped by two million tonnes an estimate from her deputy, Sergey Korolev, in February.

 

It was also markedly higher than analysts' forecasts. Moscow-based analysis group SovEcon last month cut to 88-89 million tonnes, from 90-98 million tonnes, its forecast for Russia's grain crop, warning that the long spell autumn-sown seedlings had spent under snow would have a negative influence on their condition.

 

On Tuesday (Apr 13), Kiev-based UkrAgroConsult pegged Russia's grain crop at 88-95 million tonnes, warning of the impact of lower crop prices and tight credit. "Farmers did not yet repay loans taken last year, and are forced to borrow again for the sowing works," UkrAgroConsult said.

 

Russia's farm ministry has historically been amongst the dourest forecasters, most famously in 2008 when it stood by a forecast of an 85 million-tonne harvest even as the crop rose towards 108 million tonnes.

 

However, it on Tuesday also revealed upbeat estimates for Russian sowings of a range of crops including corn, for which plantings will rise by 19.7% to 1.72 million hectares.

 

Sowings of oilseeds will also rise, with soy plantings expected to rise by 26% to 1.1 million hectares, staying ahead of rapeseed, which will cover 865,000 hectares, more than three times the amount in 2005. The ministry linked the sowings to the greater demand for animal feed in Russia, which is attempting to ramp up poultry and pig production.

 

However, the oilseed plantings figures are considerably higher than those suggested in a USDA report last week which flagged "significant" production challenges.

 

"Farmers' investments in seeds, fertiliser and machines are constrained by the financial crisis," the USDA's Moscow bureau said. "Unresolved land issues seriously limit farmers' access to credit."