April 14, 2008
ASA weekly: US soy complex up on strong exports, South American delays
The US soy complex closed up on April 10 with the biggest rally occurring in the old-crop months as the old-crop-new-crop inverse widens back out amid strong exports and concerns about timely execution of South American shipments.
Soy oil futures also posted strong gains despite modest gains in the petroleum markets as soy oil catches up with the rally in crude oil above US$110 and also gained support from the rally in Malaysian palm oil.
Soy futures outperformed the products as the board crush dropped toward more normal levels and outperformed a lower corn market as soy net revenue advantage over corn become too large.
May soy futures closed up US$15.80, finishing at US$498.24; July gained US$15.71, closing at US$504.39; and August was up US$14.70, ending at US$499.71.
May soymeal increased US$2.87 closing at US$388.23; July was US$3.31 higher, finishing at US$391.32; and August soymeal closed up US$3.31, ending at US$384.70.
May soy oil increased US$46.30 to finish at US$1326.51; July was up US$46.74, closing at US$1342.60; and August was US$46.74 higher, closing at US$1349.88.
US census report prompts increase in biodiesel production outlook
The Census Bureau has revised February soy oil stocks to 1.4 million tonnes, which is down 11,300 tonnes from the crush report's stocks figure.
A larger revision was made in January soy oil usage in methyl ester, dominantly biodiesel, production that was revised up by 29,500 tonnes to 122,000 tonnes.
Contrary to analysts' expectations for a decline from January, usage of soy oil in biodiesel production increased further in February to 132,000 tonnes, which only trails last July and August.
Total use of fats and oils in biodiesel production rose to 185,000 tonnes in February from 153,000 tonnes in December and a revised 176,000 tonnes in January.
With the biodiesel industry's usage of soy oil revised sharply higher for January and shown to have grown further in February, some industry analysts have boosted 2007-08 projections by roughly 340,000 tonnes to about 1.77 million tonnes.
October-February soy oil use in biodiesel is up 50 percent from a year ago, but rather than drawing down soy oil stocks, the increased biodiesel production has been replacing the consumption of partially hydrogenated soy oil in food as the industry moves away from trans-fats.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
6,960 |
12,229 |
15,617 |
174 |
334 |
185 |
1,638 |
2,252 |
3,851 |
|
Production |
83,368 |
86,770 |
70,358 |
40,500 |
48,800 |
47,000 |
57,000 |
59,000 |
61,000 |
|
Imports |
92 |
246 |
163 |
1,013 |
2,359 |
2,600 |
40 |
108 |
130 |
|
Crush |
47,324 |
49,160 |
49,941 |
32,748 |
37,600 |
38,100 |
28,756 |
30,770 |
31,800 |
|
Exports |
25,579 |
30,428 |
27,896 |
7,130 |
12,208 |
10,000 |
24,770 |
23,805 |
27,900 |
|
Other |
5,288 |
4,040 |
4,495 |
1,475 |
1,500 |
1,525 |
2,900 |
2,934 |
2,950 |
|
Usage |
78,191 |
83,628 |
82,332 |
41,353 |
51,308 |
49,625 |
56,426 |
57,509 |
62,650 |
|
Carryout |
12,229 |
15,617 |
3,806 |
334 |
185 |
160 |
2,252 |
3,851 |
2,331 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
156 |
285 |
318 |
1,686 |
2,003 |
2,076 |
636 |
863 |
1,013 |
|
Production |
37,416 |
39,033 |
39,720 |
25,582 |
29,153 |
29,550 |
22,300 |
23,850 |
24,615 |
|
Domestic use |
30,114 |
31,171 |
32,024 |
574 |
620 |
645 |
10,000 |
11,500 |
12,000 |
|
Net Exports |
7,173 |
7,829 |
7,743 |
24,691 |
28,460 |
29,164 |
12,073 |
12,200 |
12,713 |
|
Usage |
37,287 |
39,000 |
39,767 |
25,265 |
29,080 |
29,809 |
22,073 |
23,700 |
24,713 |
|
Carryout |
285 |
318 |
271 |
2,003 |
2,076 |
1,817 |
863 |
1,013 |
915 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
771 |
1,366 |
1,317 |
385 |
487 |
350 |
248 |
300 |
301 |
|
Production |
9,248 |
9,292 |
9,614 |
6,169 |
7,200 |
7,320 |
5,521 |
5,910 |
6,105 |
|
Domestic use |
8,146 |
8,502 |
8,573 |
402 |
597 |
1,135 |
3,172 |
3,450 |
3,640 |
|
Net exports |
507 |
839 |
1,071 |
5,665 |
6,740 |
6,160 |
2,297 |
2,459 |
2,450 |
|
Usage |
8,653 |
9,341 |
9,644 |
6,067 |
7,337 |
7,295 |
5,469 |
5,909 |
6,090 |
|
Carryout |
1,366 |
1,317 |
1,287 |
487 |
350 |
375 |
300 |
301 |
316 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 03 April 2008 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
|
Soybeans |
3.10 |
111.90 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.20 |
51.20 |
|
|
Soybeans |
286.00 |
10675.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.20 |
173.20 |
|
|
Soybeans |
13.40 |
163.40 |
|
|
Soymeal |
3.10 |
30.30 |
|
|
Soybeans |
6.20 |
164.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
10.00 |
81.40 |
|
|
Soybeans |
5.60 |
693.50 |
|
|
Soymeal |
2.00 |
86.30 |
|
|
Soybeans |
8.70 |
276.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
5.60 |
343.50 |
|
|
Soybeans |
69.40 |
1767.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
10.50 |
48.20 |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soybeans |
4.50 |
386.00 |
|
|
Soyoil |
0.50 |
18.20 |
|
|
Soybeans |
3.00 |
43.00 |
|
|
Soyoil |
4.10 |
23.20 |
|
|
Soybeans |
9.40 |
2197.80 |
|
|
Soyoil |
1.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
Soybeans |
35.00 |
328.40 |
|
|
Soyoil |
4.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
22.30 |
1262.30 |
|
|
Soyoil |
3.30 |
76.30 |
|
|
Soymeal |
14.50 |
670.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soymeal |
3.90 |
22.50 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
3.20 |
227.20 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.50 |
137.90 |
|
Soybeans |
4,538.10 |
23,142.30 |
583.90 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.80 |
79.00 |
|
Soymeal |
1,461.90 |
4,109.30 |
129.70 |
|
|
Soymeal |
2.30 |
75.00 |
|
Soyoil |
216.80 |
678.50 |
17.10 |
