April 13, 2022

 

USDA projects increased worldwide meat production

 

 

In its latest outlook for global pork, beef and chicken production and trade, the USDA projected increased global meat production and shifting trade, especially the effects of China's steadily recovering swine herd, the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board reported. 

 

China is expected to reduce its pork imports this year by about 20% year-on-year. EU exporters will look to the UK, with the UK projected to increase pork imports by 7% in 2022. The EU will increase pork exports to Australia, Japan, and South Korea as well.

 

Pork production worldwide is expected to rise 3% this year, due to China's increased swine output. Supply is projected to be high in the first half of 2022, but growth will be restricted in the second half of the year because of reduced producer profitability.

 

China is projected to produce 51 million tonnes of pork in 2022, 7% higher compared to last year and will offset tight pork supplies in Europe. The EU swine supplies is expected to drop 2% at 23.2 million tonnes,

 

Worldwide pork trade will decline by 4% to 11.7 million tonnes this year due to reduced Chinese and Philippine imports.

 

Worldwide beef production is estimated to rise 1% in 2022 thanks to growth in Australia, Brazil, India and Mexico. Rising beef prices globally will encourage more slaughter.

 

Beef production in Australia is projected to increase by 12% because of improved pasture conditions. Brazil beef production will go up 4% due to greater cattle availability and improved slaughterhouse profitability.

 

Beef output in Canada, the US, and the EU is expected to drop 3%, 1% and 1%, respectively, especially as there is unprofitability in the EU cattle industry.

 

Worldwide beef trade will be 3% up in 2022 on firm demand, mostly from East Asia. Brazil's exports will be boosted by plentiful slaughter-ready cattle and regaining access to the Chinese market, offsetting predicted decreases in its neighbouring countries.

 

Improved demand from price-sensitive markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia is expected to enhance Indian carabeef exports to these regions. Shipments to East Asia and the United States will be boosted by resurgent Australian supply and strong demand. Exports from New Zealand and several Mercosur members (Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina) may be limited in 2022 due to constrained cattle supply in both nations.

 

As growth in certain major producers offsets reductions in Ukraine and China, global chicken output is expected to remain constant in 2022 at 100.1 million tonnes. Despite forecasted economic recovery supporting modest demand growth, rising feed prices are projected to hinder expansion in most nations.

 

Brazil, as the world's biggest exporter, will significantly boost output to meet worldwide demand produced by a decline in Ukraine's meat exports. Increased availability of feed grains will boost Russian output, but the product will remain on the local market. Pork output in China is expected to recover, but yellow feather broiler production is expected to drop as customers turn to online and new retail channels.

 

In 2022, global commerce for chicken is estimated to remain at roughly 13.4 million tonnes. Brazil, as one of the few big exporters capable of serving a wide range of markets, will replace much of the gap in worldwide exportable supply caused by Ukraine's absence. Turkey and the United Kingdom will both expand their exports, owing to slight rise in demand in their respective areas. Imports from Ukraine, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are likely to fall, while imports from the United Kingdom, Iraq, Cuba, and Mexico are expected to climb modestly.

 

-      UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board