April 12, 2024

Brazil anticipates record pork production despite feed challenges

Brazil's pork production is expected to reach another record year, with a total of 4.7 million tonnes projected for 2024, UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board reported.

This figure, although slightly lower than previous estimates by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), represents a significant increase from the 4.5 million tonnes produced in 2023.

Challenges loom ahead as feed prices rise and availability diminishes, exacerbated by El Nino weather patterns that are likely to disrupt feed availability and impact pricing and net margins. Slaughter levels are predicted to rise to 47.6 million head, an increase of 1.6 million head from 2023, according to USDA data.

Despite these challenges, pork consumption in Brazil is expected to grow by approximately 3%, driven by its affordability compared to other forms of protein such as beef and chicken. While pork remains competitively priced compared to beef, it still commands a higher price than chicken, contributing to its projected growth in consumption.

Brazil's pork exports, including offal, have seen continuous growth, reaching 1.3 million tonnes in 2023, a 5% increase from the previous year. Key export destinations such as the Philippines, Hong Kong, and Chile experienced significant volume increases, offsetting a slight decline in exports to China.

China remains the largest importer of Brazilian pork, accounting for 388,000 tonnes in 2023. The competitive pricing of Brazilian pork compared to the EU-27 has further solidified its position as the leading exporter to China. Exports to the Philippines, Brazil's second-largest destination, also surged by over 40,000 tonnes, reaching 119,000 tonnes in 2023.

Looking ahead to 2024, pork exports are expected to represent 32% of Brazil's total production, with export volumes forecasted to increase by 3-5% from 2023 levels. Recent trade data indicates a promising start, with global pork exports from Brazil increasing by 12% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, reaching 208,000 tonnes. With production levels on the rise, Brazil is poised to exceed previous export records in the coming year.

-      UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board