April 11, 2024

India's wheat production projected to rise, but below government forecast

India anticipates a rise in wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing season, reaching nearly 106 million tonnes, according to a survey conducted by the Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India and Agriwatch, an increase from the previous year's output, but falls short of the government's forecast of 112 million tonnes, Mint reported.

India, the world's second-largest wheat producer and consumer after China, faces challenges of rising food inflation and declining central pool stocks of essential food grains. Severe heatwaves in the past two years have impacted wheat production, leading to reduced domestic supplies and increased prices, necessitating the release of stocks from the central pool to stabilise prices.

As of last month, wheat inventories held by the Food Corp of India (FCI) dropped to 7.71 million tonnes, the lowest since 2008. Despite a marginal decrease in retail inflation to 5.09% in February, food and beverage prices surged above 7% for the fourth consecutive month.

Higher acreage and improved yields in key states like Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh are expected to drive the rise in wheat production. However, Gujarat and Rajasthan may see a decrease in output.

Uttar Pradesh, contributing 30% to India's total wheat production, is projected to see a 4.7% increase in output, while Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh are expected to witness rises of 3.5%, 4.1%, and 1.8%, respectively. Output in Gujarat and Rajasthan is likely to decline by 5.8% and 3.3%, respectively.

The FCI remains optimistic about procuring 31-32 million tonnes of wheat in the ongoing 2024/25 rabi marketing season, up from 26.2 million tonnes last season. FCI Chairman Ashok Meena emphasised the government's commitment to ensuring fair prices for farmers while protecting consumer interests.

-      Mint