April 11, 2012

 

 

USDA expects higher average prices for the livestock feed ingredient soy meal to a range of US$335 to US$355 per short tonne, up from a range of US$310 to US$340 forecast a month ago for the marketing year that ends on September 1.

 

In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA also raised its 2012 production forecasts for beef, pork and broilers.

 

USDA left unchanged its corn supply and demand forecasts, including forecasting 2011-12 ending stocks of 801 million bushels. Deutsche Bank analyst Christina McGlone called the report bearish for corn prices, since market analysts were expecting ending stocks at around 717 million bushels. USDA tightened its corn price forecast to a range of US$6.00-6.40 from last month's US$5.90 to US$6.50 range.

 

Beef production is forecast slightly higher as higher midyear production is largely offset by lower-than-expected slaughter in the first quarter.

 

USDA lowered its beef export forecast for 2012, reflecting the current pace of trade. Imports are raised on larger expected supplies in Oceania.

 

The 2012 cattle price forecast was lowered from last month based on weaker forecast second-quarter prices. USDA put average steer prices in a range of US$124 to US$130 per hundredweight, compared to last month's range of US$124 to US$131.

 

USDA boosted its pork production forecast as the March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report pointed to a slightly higher-than-expected first-quarter pig crop.

 

USDA raised its pork export forecast, but lowered its hog price forecast based on revised first-quarter prices and a slightly weaker forecast for prices over the middle quarters. The report put 2012 average barrows and gilts prices in a range of US$62 to US$65 per hundredweight, down from US$63 to US$67 forecast last month.

 

USDA raised its broiler production forecast for the first half of the year based on production data to date and stronger forecast first-half prices. Turkey production is forecast higher as turkey price forecasts are raised to a range of US$1.05 to US$1.10 per pound from last month's US$1.03 to US$1.09 per pound forecast.

 

The broiler export forecast is reduced slightly from last month on higher prices.

 

UADA raised its broiler and turkey price forecasts because current prices remain strong.

 

USDA forecast average 2012 broiler prices in a range of US$0.87 to US$0.91 per pound, up from last month's range of US$0.85 to US$0.90 per pound.