April 10, 2012

FCStone projects Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop at 66.12 million tonnes

Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop was estimated by Commodities brokers FCStone on Monday (Apr 9) at 66.12 million tonnes, down 12% from a record 75.3 million tonnes harvested last year from the world's second largest producer of the oilseed.

The latest number is toward the lower end of most market estimates, but consultant Jorge Gracioli with FCStone in Brazil said he did not expect further revisions lower in the company estimate as Brazil winds down its harvest season.

"The futures markets have largely incorporated this number into prices but South America is not the only thing moving the market now. North American planting will play a big role from here," Gracioli said.

In a poll of 15 analysts, the average estimate of Brazil's soy crop that suffered from drought in two of its main southern producing states was 67.11 million tonnes.

Soy exports from Brazil surged to 4.24 million tonnes in March, according to the trade ministry, up sharply from the 1.57 million shipped in February and 2.73 million tonnes shipped in March a year ago. Exports in earlier months were also historically high, Natalia Orlovicin, a trade flow specialist at FCStone in Brazil, said.

"Exports have been much higher than we anticipated and they should continue like this, due mostly to China's efforts to rebuild its soy stocks," Orlovicin said.

She did not see problems with the flow of beans at the local ports so far this year and did not anticipate any abnormal congestion over the coming few months when soy shipments tend to peak in Brazil.