April 9, 2009

Rains are expected to bring relief to Argentina's main soy belt later this month, but that would be too late to avert further damage to yields in drought-hit areas, according to a weather specialist on Tuesday (Apr 7).

Argentina, the world's No. 3 soy exporter, produced 46.2 million tonnes of soy last year, but analysts say this season's harvest could shrink by as much as 15 percent due to the dry weather.

Rains in February eased the parched conditions but more dry weather and above-average temperatures are causing renewed concern and disappointing yields as the harvest advances.

Weather analyst German Heinsenknecht said late-planted soy had enough moisture at the start of March, but the heat has really complicated the situation.

He said the last weeks of March ended up dealing a last blow to maturing soy, adding that dry weather would persist this week. However, he said rains were forecast for the second half of the month.

He added that if rains reach normal levels, that would be enough for the central soy belt but for the other and the drier areas, a lot more rain is needed.

Drought continues to threaten crops in northern soy areas, and southwestern and central-western parts of the Pampas.

According to Argentina's Agriculture Secretariat latest weekly crop progress report, rains were urgently needed to prevent further damage to yields in the places worst affected by persistent drought, such as Chaco.

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its outlook for the harvest to 39.4 million tonnes last week.

Farmers have already gathered about a quarter of the 2008-09 crops, way ahead of the previous harvest's pace.