April 6, 2011

 

UkrAgroConsult cuts Ukraine's 2011 grain yield estimate

 

 

UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy lowered its forecast on Tuesday (Apr 5) for Ukraine's 2011 grain harvests from the previous 46.88 million tonnes to 44.72 million tonnes mainly due to smaller projected yields.

 

The 2011 grain yield is likely to average 2.93 tonnes per hectare, against 3.05 tonnes it forecast in February and 2.63 tonne per hectare in 2010.

 

The consultancy said it reduced its forecast for Ukrainian wheat, barley, corn, rye, peas and millet harvests mainly because of regional weather damage to winter grains.

 

UkrAgroConsult said the former Soviet republic, which consumes up to 26 million tonnes of grain per season, was likely to harvest 20.5 million tonnes of wheat, 9.8 million tonnes of barley and 11.9 million tonnes of corn this year.

 

"According to the preliminary results of the crop condition assessment carried out in late March, winter grains survived the winter normally in most regions and their thinning rate is comparatively low at 5-10%. At the same time, part of winter barley and weak crops of winter wheat were lost or heavily thinned in snow-free areas in the East," the consultancy said.

 

Ukraine's Farm Ministry last week said 54.8% of winter grain crops were in good condition, 38.4% of crops were in satisfactory and 6.8% were in poor condition.

 

Ukraine's grain harvest fell to 39.2 million tonnes in 2010 from 46 million in 2009 after a severe drought. The government has said the harvest could rise to at least 42 million tonnes this year.

 

Another consultancy, UCAB, said on Tuesday it expected the harvest of 43 million tonnes of grain this year, including 18.4 million tonnes of wheat, 8.9 million of barley and 13 million of corn.

 

"We do not expect an increase in sowing area and it is most likely that maize will replace less profitable barley," UCAB said.

 

UkrAgroConsult said farms were likely to sow a total of 15.6 million hectares for the 2011 grain harvest compared with 15.2 million a year earlier.

 

It also said the area to be harvested was likely to rise to 15.2 million hectares in 2011 from 14.9 million in 2010.

 

"Large-scale planting of spring crops started as late as March 21-31 and will continue in early April, when drought phenomena become highly probable. This may slash grain yields by several hundred kilogrammes per hectare compared to planting in the first half of March," UkrAgroConsult said.