April 5, 2007
Drought may push China's wheat output lower
China's winter wheat production was expected to decline to 94 million tonnes as a result of drought damage, down from 98.7 million tonnes in 2006, according to a government think-tank.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre trimmed its estimate by 330,000 tonnes in its latest report for the winter crop.
"Drought in northern China has affected not only the planting but also the growing of the crop," the centre said.
Farmers were likely to shift to grow more corn in 2007 to seek better returns, boosting the country's expected corn output to 147 million tonnes, up from last year's 144.4 million tonnes, it said.
Soybean output was likely to fall to 15 million tonnes in 2007 from 15.5 million tonnes last year.
The center kept its forecast for rapeseed unchanged from its previous estimate.
Chinese farmers will start planting corn and soy this month. Winter wheat and rapeseed for 2007 have already been planted for harvest after April or May.
The centre gave the following forecast.
(Production figures are in millions of tonnes. Previous estimates are in brackets)
2007* 2006* 2005
Corn 147.00 (146.00) 144.40 139.37
Wheat 99.20 ( 99.50) 103.84 97.45
of which:
Winter wheat 94.00 ( 94.33) 98.68 91.43
Rice 186.80 (186.80) 180.80 180.60
Soybean 15.00 ( 15.40) 15.50 16.35
Rapeseed 12.35 ( 12.35) 12.70 13.05
Planting areas (in million hectares):
Corn 27.60 ( 27.40) 26.92 26.40
Wheat 22.80 ( 22.80) 23.45 22.80
of which:
Winter wheat 21.30 (21.30) 21.92 ~
Rice 29.30 (29.30) 29.10 28.80
Soybean 8.60 ( 8.80) 9.10 9.60
Rapeseed 6.80 ( 6.80) 7.00 7.30
