April 4, 2016
The global grains supply will be adequately available next season, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).
The organisation also forecasted a drop in output, although not significant to "force" a decline in "heavy" global stocks, Agrimoney.com reported. In its first full forecast for world harvests in 2016-17, IGC expects 1.997 billion tonnes, a volume that sat below two billion tonnes for the first time in four years.
However, the volume would remain in line with consumption, a sign that global grain stocks are not in deficit which were forecast to end the season at 466 million tonnes, a 29-year high.
Additionally, IGC commented that global consumption is anticipated to "stay strong". Its production forecast included a first estimate for world corn output of 993 million tonnes. The volume shows a 21 million tonnes increase year-on-year and is also the third-biggest harvest on record. This could bolster the world supply by a further two million tonnes over 2016-17 to a multi-year high of 208 million tonnes.
Estimates for wheat is lifted by two million tonnes from a previous estimate, amounting to 713 million tonnes which is still a 21 million tonnes decline year-on-year. The figure, however, is just slightly behind consumption.
Wheat values have made only a slight recovery from "multi-year lows", with concerns affected by a "heavy supply outlook," IGC said.
Wheat prices, as measured by an IGC index, remain 16.0% down year-on-year.
Corn prices are down by 5.4% year-on-year, including a 1.4% drop last month.
"Better export demand provided occasional support in the US, but larger-than-expected planting intentions resulted in a late-month drop in futures," the council said.