April 4, 2007
China CNGOIC ups 2007 corn output forecast, cuts soybean outlook
The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre, or CNGOIC, has raised its 2007 forecast for corn acreage and output, but cut its outlook for soybeans.
In its monthly report, the government think-tank said Wednesday that higher corn prices have caused a shift in soybean acreage to corn.
This meant higher output estimates for corn, supposing weather conditions are normal, according to the report.
It also cut its forecast for wheat output this year as "the drought in central China affected the growth of winter wheat."
It kept its acreage estimates unchanged.
CNGOIC also raised its estimate for corn output in 2006 by 400,000 tonnes to 144.4 million tonnes, although it revised lower its acreage estimates.
"The output estimates for corn in 2006 are finalised. We revised the data after getting the latest reports from each province," said Wang Xiaohui, one of the compilers of the monthly report.
CNGOIC is affiliated with the State Grain Administration, responsible for providing cereals market information for China's policy makers.
The following table is taken from CNGOIC's April report.
2006 output Change 2006 area Change
(tonnes) on-year (Hectares) on-year
Soybeans 15,500,000 -5.2 percent 9,100,000 -5.1 percent
Corn 144,400,000 +3.6 percent 26,926,000 +2.2 percent
Wheat 103,842,000 +6.6 percent 23,450,000 +2.9 percent
Rapeseed 12,700,000 -6.5 percent 7,000,000 -3.8 percent
2007 output Change 2007 area Change
(tonnes) on-year (hectares) on-year
Soybeans 15,000,000 -3.2 percent 8,600,000 -5.5 percent
Corn 147,000,000 +1.8 percent 27,600,000 +2.5 percent
Wheat 99,200,000 -4.5 percent 22,800,000 -2.8 percent
Rapeseed 12,350,000 -2.8 percent 6,800,000 -2.9 percent
