April 3, 2008

Australia's 2008-09 grains bound for a comeback

Wheat and barley production in Australia are both forecast to recover as seasonal conditions improve in the majority of winter cereal growing regions in the country, reports the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)  of the US Department of Agriculture. 

The 2008/09 winter cereal crop is usually planted between April and June and harvested around December.  The 2009/10 summer crop (rice and sorghum) is planted from October through to January and harvested from March through to June.

According to FAS report, many grain growing regions have already experienced excellent rainfall such as in northern New South Wales, Southeast and Central Queensland.  However, other grain growing areas have received less rain and some are still showing the effects of severe and long running drought which could likely result to problematic soil moisture for 2008/09 grain production. The FAS also states that record high grain prices and record low sheep numbers are likely to impact crop production in Australia until 2009/10 as planted area for wheat and barley are seen to increase significantly in response.  Despite the symbiotic relationship between sheep and crop production in mixed farming areas, the long term decline in sheep numbers will likely provide greater flexibility for growers to focus on grain production.

The FAS also assumed that many grain growing districts will continue to suffer the accumulative effects of long running drought.  Depleted soil moisture levels, particularly at depth, will likely place some constraint on production in areas that have not recently had the benefit of above average rainfall.

Sorghum production is forecast to drop in 2009/10 from the record levels estimated in 2008/09.  Despite this fall, production is forecast to remain at historically high levels.  High demand from domestic intensive livestock industries, such as dairy and lot fed beef cattle, will likely keep sorghum production at historically high levels.

For more of the USDA report, please click here