April 2, 2004

USDA: World 2004 Meat Exports Forecast At 16.7 Million Tons

In 2004, pork, beef and poultry meat (broiler and turkey) exports from major exporting countries are forecast at 16.7 million tons, down 4% from 2003, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its "Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade" report.
 
Beef exports are expected to fall 9% and pork exports are seen declining by 1% in 2004. Broiler exports are to decline marginally due to Avian Influenza outbreaks in several Asian countries and the United States.
 
Beef exports by leading world suppliers are forecast to fall to 5.9 million tons, a 9% decrease from the 2003 level and a 15% downward revision from the 2004 forecast in October 2003, the report said. World beef trade was significantly disrupted after bovine spongiform encephalopathy was discovered in Canada and the United States in 2003. A majority of beef importing countries placed import bans on all U.S. and Canadian beef. Continuation of these bans through 2004, especially for the United States, will result in reduced imports. Brazil and Australia's exports are expected to increase in 2004, as they are not affected by BSE import bans, but not enough to entirely fill the deficit of major importing countries.
 
Pork exports for 2004 by leading suppliers are estimated at nearly 4.2 million tons, down 1% from the 2003 level, due mainly to lower exports from Brazil. The decrease in Brazil's pork exports is attributed to difficulties in getting a larger share of the Russian quota system for pork imports.
 
Broiler and turkey exports for 2004 by leading suppliers are forecast at 6.6 million tons, slightly below 2003 levels and nearly a 2% downward revision from the 2004 forecast in October 2003, the report said. Recent cases of high- pathogenic Avian Influenza in several Asian countries and the United States have disrupted trade in broiler meat and turkey. Many Asian countries have imposed nation wide import bans on countries with confirmed cases of AI, such as China, Thailand and the United States, who are the top three suppliers of broiler meat to Asia. Despite these trade restrictions, world exports are expected to decline less than 1% in 2004, as Brazil is forecast to increase broiler exports by 10% over 2003 levels.
 
In 2004, U.S. total meat exports are forecast at about 3.5 million tons, down nearly 21% from 2003.
 
The decline is mostly in beef, which is forecast 83% down from last year, while combined broiler and turkey exports are virtually unchanged, and pork is up over 6%. The U.S. share of the world beef market in 2004 is forecast to fall from 18% to 3%.

Source: USDA