March 31, 2026

Iran conflict is reshaping livestock and feed sectors in Southeast Asia

The escalation of conflict in Iran, which intensified in late February 2026 following US-Israeli airstrikes, has generated significant disruptions across global supply chains.

 

For Southeast Asia, a region highly dependent on international trade, these developments have created immediate challenges for livestock production, animal feed manufacturing, and the procurement of essential agricultural inputs. Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines—four key economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—now confront elevated energy costs, volatile commodity markets, and logistical constraints that threaten food security and sectoral profitability.

 

This analysis, verified against market data as of 23 March 2026, examines the impact on livestock production and the feed and premix sectors in these four countries.

 

The supply chain shock: Maritime disruptions and rising costs

 

The core of the disruption stems from restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling approximately 20% of global oil trade and substantial volumes of fertilizers. Rerouting of vessels, heightened insurance premiums, and elevated freight rates have increased logistical expenses across the board. Even shipments not directly transiting the Strait have been affected by broader market volatility and port congestion.

 

For Southeast Asia's livestock sector, which relies heavily on imported feed ingredients such as soybean meal, corn, and minerals, these developments translate into higher production costs. Industry analysts, including those at Rabobank, have noted that sustained feed input disruptions could constrain animal protein output in import-dependent markets.

 

Thailand, a major agricultural exporter, imports 50–70% of its urea fertiliser from Middle Eastern sources. Urea prices have risen approximately 30–40% since the conflict intensified, exerting pressure on domestic feed grain cultivation. The Thai baht has depreciated notably against the US dollar, amplifying imported input costs and challenging the competitiveness of the country's poultry sector, a significant exporter.

 

Vietnam: Measured policy response

 

Vietnam's robust livestock and aquaculture industries face rising logistics and input costs. The Minister of Agriculture and Environment has acknowledged supply chain risks and urged feed suppliers to stabilise prices and maintain production capacity. The government has implemented domestic safeguards, including prioritisation of local oil refining and temporary restrictions on certain exports to secure national supplies

 

Indonesia: Balanced but exposed

 

As a net exporter of urea derived from domestic natural gas, Indonesia is somewhat insulated on nitrogen fertilisers. However, reliance on imported phosphate and potash variants leaves livestock margins vulnerable to global price movements. Consumer markets have already registered increases in selected imported commodities, signaling broader inflationary transmission that may influence feed affordability.

 

The Philippines: Currency volatility and food security concerns

 

The Philippine peso has experienced depreciation amid regional capital flows. With food carrying substantial weight in the consumer price index, the country remains sensitive to rising energy and feed costs. Officials have emphasised the need for ASEAN-wide coordination to mitigate external shocks during high-profile regional events such as the 2026 ASEAN Summit.

 

Fertiliser and feed input pressures

 

Nitrogen-based fertilisers from the Middle East constitute 20–30% of global supply. Higher prices and potential shortages risk reduced crop yields in exporting regions, feeding through to elevated grain and alternative protein costs for livestock producers. Economists at DBS Bank have highlighted the lagged impact on food inflation, noting parallels with the 2022 commodity shock. Across the four countries, feed costs—typically 60–70% of total livestock expenses—have risen, prompting margin compression and moderated expansion plans.

 

Policy responses: ASEAN coordination and national measures

 

ASEAN Economic Ministers have issued statements underscoring the importance of maintaining open markets, stabilising food supply chains, and advancing agricultural productivity.

 

National governments have responded with targeted interventions, including inventory management and supplier engagement. Industry associations have been enlisted to monitor on-the-ground challenges and facilitate public-private dialogue, ensuring policies remain responsive to producer needs.

  

Please read more at:
https://farmmetrics.eflagdata.com/global/market-forecast-and-analysis

 

EFL AG-DATA, a Singapore-based startup, has developed FarmMetrics INSIGHT -- a market data platform delivering real-time insights on feed additives, macro ingredients, and livestock markets across China and Southeast Asia.

Interested in exploring the full features and data? Start a free trial by signing up here: https://farmmetrics.eflagdata.com/global/sign-up . Or reach out to us at inquiry@eflagdata.com.

 

- EFL AG-DATA