March 31, 2022

Rise in China's oilseed consumption expected for 2022/23

China's oilseed consumption for marketing year 2022/23 is forecast at 166.7 million tonnes, up from an estimated 163.5 million in MY 2021/22.

Oilseed imports are forecast at 104.1 million in MY 2022/23 compared to an estimated 98.4 million tonnes in the previous marketing year. Oilseed imports are expected to account for 62% of total domestic oilseed consumption in MY 2022/23, a slight increase from MY 2021/22.

Combined, Brazil, the United States, Argentina and Canada are expected to supply 96% of China's oilseed imports in MY 2022/23. China's domestic oilseed production is forecast at 62.4 million tonnes in MY 2022/23 on strong domestic prices and government incentives, up from an estimated 61 million tonnes in MY 2021/22.

Greater sow and hog inventories following the African swine fever outbreak in 2018, combined with high poultry production capacity and steadily increasing ruminant and aquaculture production, are expected to boost feed demand in MY 2022/23, pushing soybean imports to a record 100 million tonnes.

Estimated soybean imports for MY 2021/22 are reduced to 95 million tonnes from a previous USDA estimate on continuing weak demand in the swine and poultry sectors, lower than expected Brazilian production, and an announcement from China's State Food and Strategic Reserve Administration on plans to auction state reserve soybeans.

Government efforts to reduce soybean meal inclusion rates are unlikely to substantially impact overall soybean meal use as prices for other feed grains remain high. The availability of other protein meals, particularly sunflower seed meal imported from Ukraine, is limited.

- USDA