March 31, 2014
As it cut its forecast for the world rapeseed crop, downgrading EU hopes too, the International Grains Council (IGC) backed concerns that Australian rains have fallen short of levels needed to resolve dryness.
The IGC lowered by 1.3 million tonnes to 68.5 million tonnes its forecast for world rapeseed output in 2014-15. While still a strong result that would represent a fall of 2.5 million tonnes from the record high set by the latest harvests.
Although Ukraine production was upgraded to 2.2 million tonnes, after autumn-sown crop survived the winter "well", the estimate for China's harvest was trimmed by 300,000 tonnes to 14.7 million tonnes, with yields expected to fall back from last year's record high.
The EU harvest, the world's biggest, was downgraded by 300,000 tonnes to 21.1 million tonnes, "with the crop in the largest producing member state, Germany, placed below last year, at 5.6 million tonnes".
For Australia, the IGC slashed its rapeseed production forecast by 700,000 tonnes to 3.0 million tonnes, citing the threat from dry weather in eastern Australia.
With planting due to begin around April, weather conditions over the next month will be crucial for rapeseed prospects, as insufficient soil moisture could cause some farmers to switch to planting other crops such as wheat or barley, which are more tolerant to dry conditions.
The IGC, while in line with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) on rapeseed prospects, was more upbeat on hopes for wheat, pegging the 2014-15 harvest at 25.5 million tonnes.
ABARES earlier this month forecast the Australian wheat crop at 24.8 million tonnes.
The IGC said that, despite its forecast for a 200,000-tonne decline in German rapeseed production this year, it was upbeat on prospects for other major EU growing countries.
The region's output is seen rising by 1% on-year amid a favourable yield outlook in many countries, including France and the UK, where productivity is expected to recover significantly despite a very wet winter.
