March 31, 2008

 

ASA weekly: USDA cuts estimates of soy for biodiesel use by 18 percent

 

The USDA has cut its forecast of soyoil for biodiesel use (soy-methyl ester) to 1.27 million tonnes in 2007-08 by 272,000 tonnes.

 

Rising soyoil prices discourage its use as a biofuel feedstock, the USDA said.

 

Soyoil exports are now put at 1.09 million tonnes, up from 885,000 tonnes estimated in February and also higher than the 853,000 tonnes seen in 2006-07.

 

The soyoil production forecast was also raised slightly to 9.61 million tonnes against 9.53 million tonnes in February and up on the 9.29 million tonnes in 2006-07.

 

As a result, ending stocks rose to 1.29 million tonnes, compared with 1.13 million tonnes in February and 1.32 million tonnes in 2006-07.

 

US biodiesel production in January 2008 was 144,754 tonnes, down from 153,384 tonnes in December but up significantly from 91,723 tonnes in January 2007.

 

The share of non-soy-based biodiesel reached a record high of 36.35 percent, up from 34.91 percent in December 2007.

 

In January 2007, merely 16.96 percent of all biodiesel produced was non-soy-based. Biodiesel production from inedible tallow and yellow grease fell to 7,739 tonnes in January 2008 from 8,458 in December and against 3,587 in January 2007.

 

Soy complex lower as Argentine export business may switch to the US

 

The soy complex closed lower on March 27 as the old-crop/new-crop inverse widened 50 cents since March 26 due to concerns about tight old-crop stocks with the Argentine farmer strike shifting export business to the US.

 

The old-crop balance sheet cannot accommodate unless USDA's stocks report proves out that last year's US soy crop was substantially understated.

 

Crop insurance, rotation and fertilizer cost considerations appear to have resulted in more soy acreage and less corn acreage.

 

USDA's stocks and acreage reports will provide important fundamental input as to whether the US is headed to tight old-crop soy carryout and whether US soy acreage will rebound enough to allow US stocks to rebuild in 2008-09.

 

May soy futures closed down US$9.09, finishing at US$487.68; July lost US$8.45, closing at US$493.28; and August was down US$10.29, ending at US$487.95.

 

May soymeal decreased US$7.39 closing at US$384.48; July was US$7.72 lower, finishing at US$388.01; and August meal closed down US$10.47, ending at US$381.95.

 

May soyoil decreased US$5.95 to finish at US$1267.20; July was down US$7.28, closing at US$1283.08; and August was US$7.05 lower, closing at US$1289.25.

 

Thailand feed association calls for permanent removal of soymeal import tariffs

 

The Thai Feed Association (TFA) has requested the Thailand government to cease collecting import tariffs on soymeal permanently, not for only one year.

 

Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, president of the association, said the problems caused by steeply rising prices prompted the request.

 

The TFA believes that financial turmoil and price volatility are likely to worsen the problems of soymeal producers, dealers and buyers.

 

Thailand's annual imports of soymeal total between 2.1 million and 2.5 million tonnes.

 

Census crush report in line with trade expectations

 

The Census Bureau last week pegged the February crush at 3.98 million tonnes which was largely in line with trade's expectations.

 

However, other aspects of the crush report were not.

 

Soy oil stocks at the end of February dropped to 1.41 million tonnes, up slightly from the previous month's 1.39 million tonnes.

 

The Census Bureau's soymeal yield dropped in February and was revised lower for January, which looks more in line with the NOPA yields and the total oil and meal that can be extracted from a bushel of soy.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	Jun-05	Jul-06	Aug-07	Jun-05	Jul-06	Aug-07	Jun-05	Jul-06	Aug-07
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	6,960	12,229	15,589	174	334	2,264	1,638	2,252	2,578
Production	83,368	86,770	70,605	40,500	47,200	47,000	57,000	59,000	62,000
Imports	92	246	163	1,013	2,100	2,200	40	60	100
Crush	47,324	49,160	49,805	32,748	35,600	38,750	28,756	30,500	29,400
Exports	25,579	30,428	27,080	7,130	10,250	10,500	24,770	25,300	30,400
Other	5,288	4,068	4,447	1,475	1,520	1,620	2,900	2,934	2,950
Usage	78,191	83,656	81,332	41,353	47,370	50,870	56,426	58,734	62,750
Carryout	12,229	15,589	5,025	334	2,264	594	2,252	2,578	1,928
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	156	285	318	1,686	1,996	1,696	640	794	766
Production	37,416	39,033	39,448	25,582	27,718	30,425	22,300	23,637	22,755
Domestic use	30,114	31,171	32,024	574	618	645	10,073	11,000	11,220
Net Exports	7,173	7,829	7,470	24,698	27,400	29,764	12,073	12,665	11,620
Usage	37,287	39,000	39,494	25,272	28,018	30,409	22,146	23,665	22,840
Carryout	285	318	272	1,996	1,696	1,712	794	766	681
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	771	1,366	1,317	385	487	520	248	300	286
Production	9,248	9,292	9,421	6,169	6,810	7,400	5,521	5,850	5,641
Domestic use	8,146	8,502	9,026	402	600	985	3,172	3,455	3,540
Net exports	507	839	731	5,665	6,177	6,435	2,297	2,409	2,167
Usage	8,653	9,341	9,757	6,067	6,777	7,420	5,469	5,864	5,707
Carryout	1,366	1,317	981	487	520	500	300	286	220

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 20 March 2008
		New	Accum.				New	Accum.
Country	Commodity	Sales	Exports		Country	Commodity	Sales	Exports
Canada	Soybeans	2.70	109.70		Panama	Soymeal	12.30	86.30
China	Soybeans	239.90	10223.40		Peru	Soymeal	6.60	10.90
Egypt	Soybeans	19.50	568.00		Philippines	Soymeal	0.80	310.00
Indonesia	Soybeans	2.10	592.80		Trinidad	Soymeal	4.20	18.40
Israel	Soybeans	25.20	268.10		Vietnam	Soymeal	1.20	40.60
Italy	Soybeans	47.80	180.00		Costa Rica	Soyoil	1.50	0.00
Japan	Soybeans	5.30	1709.10		Guatemala	Soyoil	0.70	12.70
Mexico	Soybeans	45.60	2024.20		Hong Kong	Soyoil	5.00	20.20
Morocco	Soybeans	27.10	217.20		Jamaica	Soyoil	8.30	10.80
Portugal	Soybeans	65.00	521.60		Korea, Rep.	Soyoil	11.00	30.80
Taiwan	Soybeans	15.00	1120.20		Nicaragua	Soyoil	3.00	10.40
Canada	Soymeal	26.00	631.00		Taiwan	Soyoil	9.00	0.10
Congo, Rep.	Soymeal	1.80	1.80		Trinidad	Soyoil	1.00	2.90
Dom. Rep.	Soymeal	24.40	213.10		Tunisia	Soyoil	3.00	36.30
Egypt	Soymeal	7.20	52.80
France	Soymeal	30.00	61.40		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Honduras	Soymeal	11.60	79.00			Outstanding	Accum.	New
Indonesia	Soymeal	0.80	69.70		Commodity	Sales	Exports	Sales
Ireland	Soymeal	2.40	30.60		Soybeans	4,924.10	21,987.70	369.50
Korea, Rep.	Soymeal	2.00	106.70		Soymeal	1,585.30	3,766.20	156.80
Mexico	Soymeal	13.50	582.10		Soyoil	206.10	616.30	42.00