March 30, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Flat-up 1 cent on exports, USDA positioning

 

 

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were called to open flat to up 1 cent per bushel Thursday as weekly U.S. soybean export sales met expectations and soymeal far exceeded them; and on positioning ahead of Friday's key U.S. Department of Agriculture data, brokers said.

 

The USDA reported Thursday that weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 295,300 metric tonnes, within expectations for 200,000 to 400,000 tonnes.

 

U.S. soymeal weekly export sales totaled 179,100 tonnes, above estimates of 70,000 to 125,000 tonnes and soyoil weekly export sales totaled 9,400 tonnes, at the high end of estimates for zero to 10,000 tonnes.

 

Still, positioning ahead of Friday's key USDA data was expected to take precedence, brokers said.

 

"You can take today and tomorrow, and as soon as Friday morning at 7:30 a.m. (CST), it's all forgotten," said Vic Lespinasse, a CBOT grain analyst for AG Edwards & Sons, on Wednesday.

 

U.S. grain and oilseed analysts on average expected the USDA to report Friday that U.S. farmers would seed 74.050 million acres to soybeans, up from last year's 72.142 million.

 

March 1 U.S. soybean stocks were expected to be reported at a record 1.678 billion bushels, above last year's 1.381 billion. Estimates ranged from 1.660 billion to 1.703 billion bushels.

 

Analysts have noted a tendency for the USDA's March 31 quarterly stock estimates to come in below the trade's expectations, and they noted Dow Jones' average analyst plantings estimate was at the high end of pre-report estimates.

 

In addition, forecasts for lingering U.S. Midwest rains this week, just ahead of plantings and concerns about the Brazilian real, despite its uptick Thursday morning, could limit gains.

 

In overnight screen trade, the e-cbot May soybean contract settled flat at $5.82 1/2 a bushel. May soymeal ended unchanged at $178.70, and May soyoil closed down 0.08 cent at 22.89 cents a pound.

 

Bears are still in near-term technical control of CBOT May soybeans and their next downside price objective is to close prices below technical support at this month's low of $5.71 1/4, a technical source said.

 

It will take a close above chart resistance at $5.95 to provide the bulls with fresh upside technical momentum.

 

First resistance for May soybeans was seen at $5.84 - Wednesday's high - and then at $5.87 1/2 - this week's high. First support was seen at $5.79 - Wednesday's low - and then at $5.76 1/2 - this week's low - and then at $5.71 1/4 - the March low.

 

U.S. Midwest cash soybean basis bids were mixed Thursday, cash dealers said. Spot cash soybean bids were up 10 cents in Lincoln, Neb., up 2 cents in Memphis, Tenn., and unchanged in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa, they noted.

 

At the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybean futures slightly lower, with September 2006 soybean contract down RMB7 at RMB2,686 a metric tonne, after trading between RMB2,681/tonne and RMB2,694/tonne. September 2006 soymeal settled RMB4 lower to RMB2,294/tonne and September 2006 soyoil settled RMB9 lower at RMB5,148/tonne.

 

In Malaysia, crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended weak with the June CPO contract settling at the day's low of MYR1,434 a metric tonne, down MYR8 from Wednesday.

 

In Rotterdam, spot soybean prices were firm and soymeal prices were unchanged, cash sources said.