March 30, 2004

Argentina's 2003-04 Soy Crop 11.6% Harvested

Farmers in Argentina had collected 11.6% of the 2003-04 soybean crop by Saturday, according to the latest estimate from the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.
 
The pace of collection is down from a year ago at this time, when farmers had already harvested 20.1% of the crop. However, last year's crop measured 12.8 million hectares of planted soybeans while this year's planted area stands at 14.4 million hectares, the exchange noted.
 
As of Saturday, farmers had harvested 1.662 million hectares of soybeans, putting production so far at 4 million tons.
 
The average soybean yield last week was 2.41 tons per hectare, down almost 20% from 3.04 tons a year ago at this time.
 
Based on last week's yields, which were slightly worse than those from this week, the exchange estimated 2003-04 soybean output at 34.5 million tons. This would put production down slightly from 35.27 million tons in 2002- 03.
 
The exchange did not provide a new forecast 2003-04 soybean production. However, if the exchange's yield and harvest estimates hold, final production would amount to around 33.98 million metric tons.
 
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates 2003-04 soybean production at 36.5 million tons.
 
"In center-north Santa Fe and northern Cordoba, especially in this latter area, yields are a reflection of summer drought...and the tendency points to a major reduction in productivity," the exchange said. "The dry spell of the past few weeks, combined with high temperatures, is causing tension in crops throughout the entire Pampas region."
 
Moreover, "forecasts show a continuation of dry conditions for a few more days in the Pampas region, which makes it unlikely that we can avoid an even greater deterioration of the crop," the exchange said.
 
"With this situation in mind, we can project a reduction in productivity of around 13.4% compared with the previous year," the exchange said. "We assume the collected harvest will reach around 14.1 million hectares."
 
While planted area stands at 14.4 million hectares, the exchange expects some 300,000 hectares to be damaged by poor weather and related problems.
 
The average yield last year totaled 2.78 tons per hectare. If yields decline as forecast by the exchange, the average yield this year would total 2.41 tons/hectare.