March 29, 2013

As improved market access is expected to lead to more purchases of pork and pork products, pork production forecast in Russia was increased in 2013, and pork imports are also up slightly.

Rosstat (Russian Federal State Statistics Service) reports 2013 beginning swine inventories were approximately 18.8 million head, a noteworthy increase over past years. The increase in swine stocks is attributed to reduced backyard production (nearly 10% by volume) as a result of outbreaks of African swine fever and reduced competitiveness of informal producers compared with modernised agricultural establishments.

Increased production at more efficient agricultural establishments has led to an increase in the number of domestic swine, and, given their improved production practices, an increased pig crop. With the increase in the number of domestically produced live swine, and the on-going trade restrictions on live swine imports from the EU due to outbreaks of the Schmallenburg virus, FAS/Moscow has revised downward its 2013 forecast for swine imports.

However, given the increase in domestic swine stocks, coupled with burgeoning feed costs as noted above, Russian domestic pork production is expected to appreciably increase in 2013. An increase in pork imports in 2013 is also anticipated, as compared to previous estimates, because of Russia's WTO commitments – namely a TRQ with favourable import duties and, as is the case for beef, continued modification of existing sanitary regulations.

FAS/Moscow forecasts 2013 beginning stocks of swine to increase by 8% over past estimates as result of an increase in year-end Rosstat inventory statistics. Backyard production has been declining in Russia for several years, but inventories at these farms significantly declined in 2012 (falling by nearly 10%, by volume).