March 29, 2012

As producers responded to strong prices and forecasts for lower feed costs, federal data due out this week is expected to show a modest rise in the size of the nation's swine herd.

The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly hogs and pigs inventory report Friday (Mar 30) at 3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT).

The agency will report the total number of hogs and pigs as of March 1 at 64.767 million head, or 1.7% above a year ago and 0.5% over the five-year average, according to the average prediction of 10 analysts in a Dow Jones Newswires survey. Estimates ranged from 1.4-2.3% above last year's inventory level.

The outlook for additional hogs combined with only a slight increase forecast for pork exports this year have kept lean hog futures below year-ago levels. Currently, the front-month April contract is trading about US$0.10 a pound below where it was at this time a year ago, a drop of about 10.6%. June is nearly US$0.12 below a year ago, and October is about US$0.09 under last year at this time.

Analysts also expect supplies of slaughter-ready animals to grow in the summer and fall. They estimate a 2-3% in production driven by a larger breeding herd and sows, or female pigs, on average increasing the number of piglets they produce.

On average, analysts forecast the pig crop born from December through February to be 2.4% larger than last year. They expect a slight increase of about 0.7% occurred in farrowing, or successful pregnancies, during the latest three months.

Mild fall and winter weather conditions likely improved weight gains and could result in larger litter sizes in spring and early summer. Analysts predict farrowing intentions, or expected breedings, to rise 0.2% from a year ago in the March to May time period and 0.3% in the June to August time period.

Analysts surveyed on average expect the pig crop from December through February to be up 2.4% from a year ago on increased sow productivity, or the number of healthy piglets a sow produces and that are weaned.