March 28, 2007

Oil World sees larger Argentina, Brazil soy crops
 

German-based oilseeds analysts Oil World has substantially raised its forecast of this year's soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina and expects a record harvest by the five key South American soybean producers due to good weather.

Brazil is projected to harvest 58.60 million tonnes higher than last year's output of 56.94 million tonnes from its previous forecast of 56 million tonnes. On the other hand, Argentina's crop is seen at 45.30 million, up from Oil World's previous estimate of 43.50 million tonnes. The country's soy crop was pegged at 40.90 million tonnes. 

Paraguay's crop is forecast to rise sharply to 6.0 million tonnes from 3.80 million tonnes last year. Uruguay's could rise to 800,000 tonnes from 630,000 tonnes last year.

But Bolivia's crop is forecast to fall to 1.40 million tonnes from 1.55 million tonnes last year.

Oil World said total output in the five key South American countries is likely to reach a record 112 million tonnes, marking a significant increase by 8.3 million tonnes from last season.

The analyst also forecasted "a bumper crop in Paraguay and a very good one in Uruguay will more than offset the reduced production in Bolivia."

The estimated harvest would lead to higher than expected world soybean stocks at end-August 2007. However, Brazilian farmers are currently reluctant in their sales, hoping the smaller upcoming US crop will support prices.