March 27, 2025

Mexico and South Africa expected to increase corn production in 2025/26

Corn production in Mexico and South Africa is forecast to rise in the 2025/26 season, according to reports from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) attachés in Mexico City and Pretoria.

In Mexico, the increase in production is attributed to growing demand for corn, despite economic and policy challenges. The country is projected to produce 24.50 million tonnes, an increase of 800,000 tonnes from the 2024/25 season. This estimate is based on a 100,000-hectare expansion in harvested area, bringing the total to 6.40 million hectares. Yields are expected to improve by 1.8% to 3.83 tonnes per hectare.

While production is set to rise, constraints remain. High farmer debt, limited financing mechanisms, and increasing insecurity, including robberies targeting grain transport by rail, could impact the sector. Additionally, Mexico's gross domestic product is expected to decline by 0.6 per cent, adding further pressure on the agricultural industry.

The USDA attaché has adjusted Mexico's 2025/26 corn import forecast downward by 700,000 tonnes, bringing it to 24.80 million tonnes. Total consumption is projected to increase slightly to 49.80 million tonnes. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 4.09 million tonnes, a decrease of 520,000 tonnes from the previous season.

In South Africa, one of the world's top ten corn producers, output for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 340,000 tonnes, reaching 16 million tonnes. This growth is largely driven by a 74 per cent rise in beginning stocks, which are estimated at 1.43 million tonnes.

Despite the increase in production, the amount of land allocated to corn is not expected to expand, as there are no changes in the country's oilseed planting area.

The USDA attaché in Pretoria has revised South Africa's corn export forecast to 1.85 million tonnes, up from 1.50 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season. Total consumption is expected to reach 14.10 million tonnes, while ending stocks are projected to remain stable at 1.48 million tonnes.

- Alberta Farmer Express