March 27, 2014

 

Russia may cut grain exports to 22 million tonnes in 2014-15

 

 

Due to lower harvest, Russia may cut exports of all grains by about two million tonnes in the 2014-15 marketing year, totalling 22 million tonnes of all grains, down from 24.1 million in the 2013-14 year, according to Russian analytical firm SovEcon.

 

SovEcon raised its 2014 grain crop forecast to 88 million tonnes from the previously expected 86 million tonnes.

 

Russia harvested 92 million tonnes of grain in 2013 and is expected by the Agriculture Ministry to produce 95 million tonnes in 2014. SovEcon did not provide an estimate for the 2014 wheat harvest or 2014-15 wheat exports. Wheat usually accounts for about 60% of Russia's grain crop.

 

As for the supply side, the firm sees Russia's 2014-15 grain imports flat at 1.3 million tonnes. Its grain closing stocks are forecast at 11.8 million tonnes, including 1.6 million tonnes of government stock, at the end of 2013-14 on June 30. By June 30, 2015, SovEcon expects Russia's closing stocks to rise to 12.1 million tonnes with flat government stocks.
 

Russia sends grain to North Africa and the Middle East via the Black Sea. Its export prospects have drawn additional attention due to fears of possible disruptions in supplies from crisis-hit Ukraine, a peer grain exporter via the Black Sea.

 

Video >

Follow Us

FacebookTwitterLinkedIn