March 26, 2012

World corn stocks to rise in 2011-12

In 2011-12, coarse grain (includes corn, barley, oats and sorghum) stocks worldwide have been revised up from the last month, to 1.3 billion tonnes, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released by the USDA.

World corn supplies, including stocks and production, have been revised up 1.9 million tonnes, to a record 994 million tonnes for 2011-12 - primarily due to increased crop prospects in Brazil and India. Partly offsetting the increase in Brazil and India however is lower expectations in South Africa and Ecuador, with adverse weather conditions expected to impact yields.

For the US, corn supplies in 2011-12 were unchanged from previous month's forecast, totalling 342.6 million tonnes - with projected ranges for the season-average corn farm prices narrowing to US$5.90-$6.50/bushel.

Following increased supply forecasts, global coarse grain consumption in 2011-12 has been revised up two million tonnes, to 1.15 billion tonnes. Worldwide corn utilisation has been lifted 1.9 million tonnes, to 664.7 million tonnes, with a forecast increase in feed use accounting for the majority of the rise (1.4 million tonnes).

Driving the higher feed corn usage for 2011-12 is a forecast rise in EU feed corn utilisation, largely replacing higher priced wheat. Corn feed use has also been revised up for India, Chile and Peru.