March 23, 2012

For 2011/12, the corn production of South Africa is seen at 12 million tonnes, down 500,000 from February and up 1.1 million or 10% from 2010.

Area is forecast at 3.2 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and up 0.3 million or 12% from last year.

The forecast yield of 3.75 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) is near the five-year average of 3.77 t/ha and below last year's yield of 3.82 t/ha. Overall conditions are dry and yield is not expected to surpass last year's level.

Seasonal rainfall from October through February was below average despite expectations of above-average rainfall during a La Niña year. Furthermore, the seasonal rains arrived several weeks late, delaying the launch of the planting campaign. Soy typically are planted from October through December.

USDA/FAS personnel traveled throughout South Africa's corn belt during the first week of March when the crop was in the early grain-fill stage. Crop conditions varied widely, with excessive dryness and permanently wilted corn in the worst areas. All major corn-producing provinces had a mixture of good and poor crops, although the majority of the crop displayed signs of water stress in early March.

South Africa's National Crop Estimates Committee released its first production estimate at the end of February but a subsequent dry spell from mid-February through early March reduced yield expectations throughout the main growing region. Water balance models and vegetative indices indicate that yields will be less than last year by a significant amount.