March 23, 2012

Ukraine's grain surplus to top 10 million tonnes

Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food estimated the possible grain surplus as of July 1, 2012, at the level of over 10 million tonnes, because the lack of export rates in the Q3 2011 affected its general volume, said Nikolai Bezugly, Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy.

He estimated that wheat stocks at the end of the current marketing year (July-June) will total 7-8 million tonnes, including at least five million tonnes of milling wheat.

At the same time, N.Bezugly said that Ukraine will be able to reduce the carry-over stocks at the expense of corn exports before coming of the new crop grain on the market, because the harvesting campaign begins in September. In particular, the First Deputy Minister, believes that at the end of the current marketing year, which for corn runs from October to September, export volumes of the crop will total over 15 million tonnes, which will break the record for Ukraine.

He also suggested that in the current year corn sowings in Ukraine will be expanded and total 4.3-4.5 million ha.

As a reminder, in the third quarter of 2011 Ukraine not actively exported grains due to the effect of the export duties on grains, and the Government also cancelled the VAT refund grain traders.

Since the beginning of the calendar year, abnormally cold weather constrained supplies of Ukrainian grains on foreign markets.