March 23, 2006

 

Brazil's Mato Grosso soy yields below average

 

 

Brazil's top soy-producing state, Mato Grosso, should produce between 2,400 and 3,000 kg per hectare, below the state's potential, and below 2004/05 yields, an agronomist at AgroConsult said Wednesday (Mar 22).

 

AgroConsult is currently conducting crop tours throughout Brazil. A team of agronomists arrived in southern Mato Grosso on Monday.

 

"If you compare these production levels to the national average then it's not bad at all, but Mato Grosso is the Iowa of Brazil," said Andre Pessoa, director of AgroConsult.

 

Iowa is the US top soy-producing state.

 

In terms of 60-kg bags, Mato Grosso should produce between 40 and 50 bags per hectare in the 2005/06 soy crop, similar to 2004/05 yields. The state has just started harvesting.

 

Some fields in the southern part of the state will actually produce no more than 40 bags, which is poor for Mato Grosso. An hour's drive away, however, properties were averaging 50 bags per hectare, Pessoa said in a phone interview.

 

Mato Grosso's neighbouring state, Goias, Brazil's fourth largest soy producer, will see crop yields swinging between 30 and 60 bags per hectare. In 2004/05, the state's yields were less volatile, between 40 and 50 bags.

 

Big swings in crop yields has been the story so far of the AgroConsult crop tour, with some properties producing nearly double what their neighbour a couple miles down the road are set to produce.

 

"We expected Mato Grosso to produce an average of 45 bags per hectare," Pessoa said. Forty-five bags is the equivalent of 2,700 kg. "But now I'd say it's going to be less. How much less is still an unknown."

 

AgroConsult expected a similar yield in Goias, but Pessoa said it should fall by a bag or two per hectare.

 

Pessoa said that weather problems, weed cover, insects, and the general reduction of herbicides and fungicides to fight diseases like Asian soybean rust, led to the smaller yields.

 

"The farms we've visited are on their fifth application of anti-rust fungicide. That's ridiculous. Each time they do that, it takes another 3 bags away from their productivity," Pessoa said.

 

Moreover, heavy rainfall in December did not permit soy plant roots to dig deep enough into the soil. So when January rolled around, and dry weather took over, the soy plant roots could not reach the moisture in deeper soil and produced less beans per stem as a result.

 

Private and public estimates for Mato Grosso soy production is between 16.4 million tonnes and 17.5 million tonnes.

 

On Monday, Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp (Conab) reduced the Mato Grosso crop estimate by 100,000 tonnes to 17.4 million tonnes, with yield estimates declining to 2,990 kg, or 49 bags, per hectare, compared with 3,020 kg per hectare, or 50 bags on average in their January estimate.

 

Conab forecast a 57.2 million tonne harvest on Monday, down from 58.1 million tonnes in January.