March 21, 2022
USDA: Corn production to increase 7.4% in 2021/22 period while drop expected for soybean
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its new monthly supply and demand reports for grains and oilseeds with significant adjustments made for soybean crops in South America.
The results presented are influenced by the possible impacts that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have in the short term. As for South America, the soybean harvests for Brazil and Argentina, which continue to be affected by adverse weather conditions, were reduced.
Globally, the USDA estimates that corn production will reach 1,206 million tonnes for the 2021/22 marketing year, which is 7.4% higher compared to the 2020/21 period (1,123 million tonnes).
For major world producers, there were no variations with respect to the forecasts given in the February report. For the United States, production remains at around 383.9 million tonnes, with a growth of 7.1% compared to the previous crop (358.4 millon tonnes). China is expected to increase its domestic supply by 4.6%, reaching 272.6 million tonnes.
Brazil's production volume is expected to reach 114 million tonnes, an increase of 31% compared to the 2020/21 season (87 million tonnes). Production in the European Union and Argentina is expected to see volumes of 69.8 million tonnes and 53 million tonnes, respectively, representing increases of 4% and 2.9% compared to the previous crop.
It is estimated that world grain exports would increase by 10%, from 181.8 million tonnes in the previous period to 199.9 million tonnes in the current season. This would be explained by the increase in export volumes from Brazil (+104.8%) and the European Union (+31.3%), which would be offsetting the decrease expected for the United States, which is expected to reduce its shipments abroad by 9.2%, from 69.9 million tonnes to 63.5 million tonnes.
Finally, China's corn imports are expected to fall by 11.9% to 26 million tonnes, which would be offset by an increase in its domestic production (+4.6%).
Global soybean production is expected to decrease by 3.4% compared to the 2020/21 season, from 366.2 million tonnes to 353.8 million tonnes.
The United States will continue to stand out with the highest volume growth among the main producers (+5.2%), going from 114.7 million tonnes to 120.7 million tonnes.
On the other hand, the production estimates for Brazil and Argentina's harvests were sharply reduced, as they would decrease by 8% and 5.8% with respect to the previous season, respectively, with volumes that would be around 127 million tonnes and 43.5 million tonnes.
Export activity will continue to be led by Brazil with 85.5 million tonnes, up 4.7% from the previous season, while the US will reach an export volume of 56.9 million tonnes, down 7.5% from the previous crop. China will continue to be the main oilseed importer with 94 million tonnes.