March 20, 2014

 

US corn and soy exports on high demand

 

 

The latest world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) report reveals that US corn and soy ending stocks continued downward on strong global demand, while the balance sheet for wheat was unchanged.

 

The USDA projected corn exports 635,000 tonnes higher for the current marketing year on stronger world imports and the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks. Continued strong export sales also support the higher figure.

 

Projected corn ending stocks were lowered from 37.6 million tonnes projected last month to 37 million tonnes.

 

The season-average farm price for corn was narrowed US$0.05 on both ends of the projected range to US$167 to US$187 per tonne. The estimated price ranges are similarly narrowed for sorghum and oats.

 

The barley farm price was raised US$0.10 on the low end of the range to US$273 to US$287 per tonne based on recently higher reported prices for feed barley.

 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected 1.4 million tonnes higher with larger corn beginning stocks for Indonesia, higher corn production for China and higher barley production for Australia.

 

Partly offsetting is a reduction in expected sorghum output for Australia as a continuation of hot, dry conditions have sharply eroded prospects for this year's sorghum crop.

 

Global coarse grain-import projections for 2013-2014 were raised 1.3 million tonnes with higher corn imports for Indonesia and the EU and higher barley imports for China. Higher expected corn and barley feeding in these countries are driving the import increases.

 

EU corn exports were lowered, but more than offset by this month's increase for the US

 

Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2013-2014 were increased slightly with higher corn stocks in China and Indonesia more than offsetting lower barley stocks in the EU and the reductions in corn and oats stocks in the US.

 

US soy supply and use projections for 2013-14 include higher imports and exports, reduced crush and reduced ending stocks compared with last month's report. Soy exports estimates were raised 544,000 tonnes to a record 42 million tonnes, reflecting continued strong sales and shipments through February.

 

Projected soy crush was reduced 272,000 tonnes to 46 million tonnes, reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic soymeal use through the first quarter of the marketing year.

 

US soy stocks are projected at four million tonnes, down 136,000 tonnes from last month. Soyoil stocks are reduced on lower production and increased exports. Other soyoil changes include reduced use for biodiesel and an offsetting increase for food, feed and other industrial use.

 

Global oilseed production for the current marketing year is projected at 504.3 million tonnes, down 1.7 million from last month as reduced soy and copra production are only partly offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflower seed and peanuts.

 

Foreign production, projected at 407 million tonnes, accounts for all of the change. Brazil soy production is projected at 88.5 million tonnes, down 1.5 million, mainly reflecting hot, dry weather in the south when much of the crop was in the flowering and filling stages.

 

Soy production also is reduced for Paraguay due to the extended period of hot, dry weather.

 

Global oilseed supplies, exports and ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected lower this month while crush is projected higher.

 

Soy crush is projected higher for the EU, Paraguay and Zambia. Rapeseed and peanut crush are each raised for China.

 

Lower soy stocks in the US, Brazil and Paraguay are only partly offset by higher rapeseed stocks in China. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 84 million tonnes, down 1.9 million from last month's estimate.