March 19, 2021
 

EU dairy, cattle herds shrinking, according to USDA

  

The European Union's dairy herd is shrinking - except for Ireland - due to increasing efficiency, while the same trend has happened for EU beef herd - except for Central Europe - due to unprofitability, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) analysts.

 

On the other hand, their latest EU livestock report notes that the pig sector is breaking records, with unprecedented pork production and exports in 2020 and a new production record forecast for 2021.

 

Despite falling beef production, the EU became a net exporter in 2020, according to the USDA report.

 

With the reduction in the cattle herd, beef production is forecast to fall, and "beef consumption will inevitably follow."

 

In 2020, EU beef imports fell due to lack of demand, while exports rose.

 

This year, imports are forecast to recover if the food service sector reopens, but exports are also projected to increase.

 

The USDA said EU dairy herd shrinkage has been greatest since 2010, in absolute terms, in Poland (404,000 head less), France (284,000), and Germany (260,000), while the dairy cow herd in Ireland increased by 449,000.

 

Since 2010, EU beef cows reduced only 1% compared to 3.9% for dairy cattle.

 

In 2020, the beef herd expanded in Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Baltic States, Spain and Portugal. Exports (mainly to Northern Africa and the Middle East) have become a main driver for holding beef cows in the EU.

 

But this trade declined in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, except for Spanish exports to Libya and Turkey, Portuguese exports to Israel and Hungarian exports to Kosovo.

 

In 2021, EU cattle exports are forecast to recover.

 

The USDA said COVID-19 in 2020 only had a minor effect on the EU dairy market.

 

The price for beef cattle, however, plummeted in March, 2020, and didn't fully recover, because demand for beef was reduced by the food service sector closure.

 

Worst hit were prominent veal producing countries, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy and Belgium.

 

Major 2021 cuts to the beef herd are forecast in almost all EU Member States, most pronounced in France and Germany.

 

Low cattle prices are expected to encourage farmers to either stop farming or reduce their breeding herd.

 

However, expansion of the beef cow herd in Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary could outweigh reductions in France, Germany and Ireland.

 

With recent EU policy proposals such as the Green Deal, Farm to Fork, and Biodiversity Strategies, any chance for EU cattle herd growth appears unrealistic in the near-term, according to the USDA.

 

In 2020, African swine fever in wild boar in Germany closed off German pork exports, but the Netherlands and Spain were able to take over exports and relieve the EU market from oversupply.

  

- Irish Examiner