March 19, 2007

 

India's soymeal exports seen 3.5 million tonnes

 

 

India's soymeal exports in the current marketing year to September 2007 are forecast to be around 3.5 million tonnes, much lower than last year's 4.1 million tonnes on strong demand and attractive prices within the country, Rajesh Agrawal, Coordinator, Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) of India, said Saturday (Mar 17).

 

Exports in March are projected at around between 500,000 tonnes and 550,000 tonnes, he said.

 

"Even though soymeal production is projected to be higher on the year, but remunerative local sales may have a downward impact on overall exports this year," Agrawal told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

 

India is one of Asia's largest exporters of soymeal by volume, and ships out the bulk of its sales between October and March each year.

 

Agrawal said intensive crushing of soybeans and extraction of meal in the initial months of the marketing year is also likely to have an impact on exports during the later months.

 

"Initially soybean crushings were quite high," he said.

 

Agrawal, who earlier headed SOPA, an umbrella association of all local soybean processors and traders, said exporters have already shipped out close to 2.2 million tonnes of soymeal between October and February, up from 2.0 million tonnes in the year-earlier period.

 

He said exporters also have pending commitments to ship out anywhere between 400,000 tonnes and 500,000 tonnes of soymeal mostly in April and the second half of March.

 

Agrawal said there has been a strong demand for Indian soymeal from Thailand and Indonesia.

 

Indonesia purchased around 381,000 tonnes of soymeal from India between October and February and is the second largest buyer from India by volume after Vietnam, he noted.

 

Agrawal said exports of soymeal in April are projected to be at least 250,000 tonnes but may taper off in the subsequent five months at around 100,000 tonnes each.

 

"A lot will depend on our own stocks and local demand--if more volumes are available, exports could be higher," he noted.

 

Export prices up

 

Agrawal also said global rates at which soymeal is being offered have moved up sharply this year.

 

He said Indian soymeal is being offered for export at over US$250/tonne, free alongside ship, or FAS, up from US$190-US$210 a tonne in previous years.

 

Local soybean prices have increased significantly over the past few months and this has had a cascading effect on prices of soymeal as well, he said.

 

"Against a government set farm-gate intervention price of Rp10,200/tonne, soybeans are being delivered at processing units at around Rp15,250/tonne," he noted.

 

Local soybean prices for delivery at processing units are around Rp2,000/tonne, higher on the year, and way higher than the government-set intervention price, he said.

 

Despite higher prices, India's soymeal is anywhere between US$5-10/tonne cheaper than that of South American origin and is highly competitive in the international market.

 

"Currently it is lean season for South American sales and soymeal of Indian origin is much in demand but as the region's (south American) harvest begins in three or four weeks, global prices could decline slightly," he said.