March 16, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Mixed; e-CBOT Vs US rains, South American crop

 

 

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were called to open narrowly mixed Thursday, as firm overnight trade could be offset by bearish old fundamental news including improved U.S. planting conditions and a building South American soy harvest, brokers said.

 

U.S. weekly soybean export sales data were neutral, they noted.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Thursday that U.S. weekly soybean export sales totaled 381,400 metric tonnes and new-crop sales totaled 3,000 tonnes.

 

The old-crop net weekly U.S. soybean sales of 381,400 metric tonne were 24% below the previous week and 20% under the prior 4-week average. Major increases for China (310,400 metric tonnes, including 100,000 metric tonnes switched from unknown destinations), the USDA said.

 

Weekly U.S. soymeal export sales totaled 93,700 metric tonnes (old- and new-crop combined) while soyoil sales were 17,500 tonnes.

 

In overnight screen trade, the e-cbot May soybean contract settled up 1/4 cent at $5.84 1/2 a bushel. May soymeal ended unchanged at $175.00, and May soyoil closed down 0.01 cent at 23.54 cents a pound.

 

Prices of CBOT May soybeans are still near the bottom of a choppy, six-week-old trading range on the daily bar chart, a technical source said. A close below the March low of $5.79 would produce a bearish downside breakout from the aforementioned trading range and suggest more price weakness to come.

 

First resistance for May soybeans is seen at $5.92 3/4 - Wednesday's high - and then at $5.96. First support is seen at $5.82 - Wednesday's low - and then at $5.79.

 

U.S. Midwest cash soybean basis bids were mixed Thursday, cash dealers said. Spot cash soybean bids were up 2 cents in St. Louis, flat in Sioux City, Iowa, and flat in Chicago, they noted.

 

At China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybean futures ended lower. The benchmark September 2006 soybean contract settled RMB24 lower at RMB2,672 a metric tonne, after trading between RMB2,666/tonne and RMB2,685/tonne. September 2006 soymeal fell RMB25 to settle at RMB2,284/tonne, and September 2006 soyoil closed RMB20 lower at RMB5,209/tonne.

 

In Malaysia, crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended moderately higher Thursday in a mild technically-driven recovery from 12 straight days of losses. The benchmark June CPO contract ended at MYR1,456 a metric tonne, up MYR8 from Wednesday after moving within a narrow range of MYR1,446 and MYR1,456/tonne.

 

In Rotterdam, spot soybean and soymeal prices were firm, cash sources said.