March 16, 2004

 

 

Peru Fishmeal Output Forecast Revised Downwards

 

Peru revised its fishmeal output forecast to an increase of only 10.2% in 2004 down from its previous forecast of 33%.

 

Peru, the world's largest producer of fishmeal, should produce 1.3 million metric tonnes of the cattle feed in 2004 because of higher forecasted anchovy catches, the production ministry said.

 

Producer group the National Society of Fishing said in February Peru would produce 1.57 million tonnes of fishmeal this year, up from 1.18 million tonnes in 2003.

 

But the ministry said that estimate was too optimistic based on the amount of available fish stocks in the Peruvian Pacific.

 

"This year, I calculate output of 1.3 million tonnes of fishmeal. According to official estimates there will be a higher anchovy catch, at least half a million or a million tonnes more than in 2003," said Deputy Production Minister Alfonso Miranda.

 

Fishmeal exports in 2004 are likely to generate between $700 million and $800 million, compared with $741 million in 2003, Production Minister Alfonso Velasquez told Reuters, and added that Peru would hold some exports back to keep international prices high.

 

"We are going to be as rational as possible to avoid overproduction in the first three or four months. That way we can benefit from high fishmeal prices for six to eight months," he said.

 

Fishmeal prices are currently 12 percent higher at $632 a tonne compared with last year's average, according to the National Society of Fishing.

 

Fishing is one of Peru's most important earners of foreign exchange, and fishmeal exports make up about 80 percent of total fishing exports.

 

But fishmeal production in 2003 fell 36 percent, compared with 2002, while fishmeal exports fell 10 percent. A three-month ban on anchovy fishing last year, designed to protect fish stocks in the Pacific, was behind the decline, official data showed.

 

Velasquez expects the 2004 total fish catch to increase 35 percent to 8 million tonnes. The 2002 catch was 8.8 million tonnes.

 

"This is a significant improvement ... Of these 8 million tonnes, between 6 and 6.5 million will be anchovies," Velasquez said.

 

Velasquez said Peru was also cracking down on illegal fishing to stop tax evasion worth $286 million a year.

 

From March 26 Peru will monitor a new temporary fishing ban using a satellite system that allows authorities to spot illegal fishing from wooden, as well as steel, boats.

 

Fines for illegal fishing are expected to range between $27,000 and $46,000.