March 15, 2011
Worldwide use of coarse grains lowered for 2010/11
Total world coarse grain use in 2010/11 is forecast to decrease 3.3 million tonnes this month to US$1.1199 billion, according to a USDA report.
Feed use is forecast to increase 0.3 million tonnes, but food, seed, and industrial use have decreased. Trade changes contribute heavily to the forecast decline in global use.
Predicted EU coarse grain total use has increased 1.2 million tonnes this month with increases of 1 million tonnes for corn and 0.2 million for sorghum. Import licenses are up as prices in the EU promote imports. Ukraine's total coarse grain use has grown by 0.5 million tonnes, with feed use increasing by 0.4 million as the slow speed of barley exports and ambiguity about export licenses is expected to encourage local use. Corn feed use projections have grown slightly for Moldova.
Coarse grain feed use projections are slashed by 0.9 million tonnes for Russia as the grain export ban has suppressed internal prices, keeping them low, in particular those of low quality wheat, discouraging imports and feeding of corn (down 0.5 million tonnes) and barley (down 0.4 million). Australia's feed use is reduced by 0.4 million tonnes, with lower barley and oats production more than offsetting increased sorghum. There is also a small decrease in corn feed use projections this month for Taiwan.
India's coarse grain total use is down 1.3 million tonnes this month to 37.6 million. Lower production of sorghum, corn, and millet is expected to slash human consumption, with a decrease in forecast sorghum feed use of 0.2 million tonnes. Food use is also slashed this month for Mexican corn (down 0.3 million tonnes), Kenyan corn (down 0.1 million), and Chinese barley (trimmed 0.1 million).
Local marketing year trade changes can change global use. With the sum of local marketing year coarse grain exports decreased by 1.1 million tonnes this month while total imports are increased by 0.9 million tonnes, the trade changes combine to lower global coarse grain use by 2.0 million tonnes.
