March 15, 2005

AgRural lowers Brazil 2004-05 soy view to 52.3 million tonnes

Brazilian agricultural consultants AgRural lowered its estimate for the local 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) to 52.3 million tonnes, some 13 percent down from last month's forecast and almost 10 million tonnes lower than its original prediction of 62.1 million tonnes.

The reduction is due to bad weather conditions in the south of the country, specifically in Rio Grande do Sul, as well as in the southeastern state of Sao Paulo and the center-west state of Mato Grosso do Sul.

The estimate is the lowest yet for the crop, which is currently being harvested. Last week, Brazil's main crushers group, Abiove, forecast a crop of 53.9 million tonnes while the Agriculture Ministry is predicting a crop of 57.0 million tonnes.

Average yields in Rio Grande do Sul are expected to come in at a miserable 780 kilograms per hectare. Indeed, across the southern region yields are seen disappointing at 1,535 kg/hectare.

The only major soybean state seen registering yields over 3,000 kg/hectare is Mato Grosso, which is expected to produce 17.7 million tonnes compared with 15 million tonnes last year.