March 14, 2025

 

Thailand's pig production on the rise -- but prices fall and small-scale farmers suffer

Pig production in Thailand rose by 6.19% last year, reaching 21.723 million heads, compared to 20.456 million in 2023.

 

Large pig farms can be attributed to this growth, but not everyone is happy about the impact caused by the boost in pork production. Consequentially, the country experienced a glut of pork, the Bangkok Post reported on December 17, and the president of the Swine Raisers Association of Thailand (SRAT), Sitthiphan Thankiatphinyo, blamed the recklessness of large farms to raise production regardless of actual demand.

 

By the first quarter of last year, Thai pig production leaped by 28% year-on-year to 5.8 million heads, according to SRAT. In the same period, live pig prices sunk by 23% year-on-year to ฿68/kg (US$1.80). These trends can be linked to large-scale producers expanding their herds as they recovered from African swine fever outbreaks in the country. But the smuggling of frozen pork, estimated at one time to be around 20,000 containers, has also been singled out for the decline of pork and pig prices since early 2023.

 

Moreover, government action against smuggling was seen as less than effective, with only a handful of illegal pork seized.

 

The Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) expected farmgate pig prices in 2024 to drop by 10.2% as the costs of raw ingredients for pig production fell. This would leave pig prices at a less profitable level, especially for small farms, which risk severe losses and eventual business shutdown, SRAT president Sitthiphan noted.

 

Furthermore, pork consumption in Thailand grew by only 2.5%, as stated by the Genesus Global Market Report for November last year, citing research by Kasikorn Bank. Consumption may stay lower over the coming five years, with the country's declining population considered a factor.

 

Between 2020 and 2024, the Thai population fell from 66.2 million to 66.1 million. Over 90% of Thai pork is consumed locally.

 

This year, government intervention to control pig production capacity (by calling upon large farmers to lower the number of sows) could help stabilise pig prices, leading to an anticipated drop in production of 1.63%. This development may provide some relief for small farms, but lingering factors like imports, ASF, and smuggling can create stifling conditions for their profitability.

 

Of note, last year Thailand brought in 274 tonnes of pork products worth ฿94 million (US$2.49 million), a spike of 24.90% and 19.17% from 220 tonnes worth ฿79 million (US$2.09 million) in 2023, respectively, SRAT stated. But the country also exported 2,140 tonnes of chilled and frozen pork in 2024, worth ฿220 million (US$5.82 million), with volume increased by 8.88% from 1,965 tonnes in 2023 and value dropped by 14.63% from ฿258 million (US$6.83 million) in the same year.

 

Additionally, in 2024, Thailand exported 4,780 tonnes of processed pork worth ฿1,065 million (US$28.16 million), an increase of 19.81% and 13.38% from 3,990 tonnes worth ฿939 million (US$24.83 million) in 2023, respectively.

 

This year, the country's export of live pigs, chilled and frozen pork, and processed products may rise slightly from 2024's volume.

 

Thailand's pig production is about 20 million a year but this is still lower than the pre-ASF figure of 22 million heads per annum.

 

Meanwhile, the number of small-scale pig farmers in the country has decreased in recent years; this dropped from 180,000–190,000 pre-ASF to 100,000 in 2023, Nipat Nuanim, vice president of SRAT, said in an interview in the same year.

 

Recent developments suggest that the onus is on major pig producers in Thailand to keep production in check — any drop in pig and pork prices due to overzealous production and other accompanying factors will spell more trouble for the country's small-scale pig farming sector.

 

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EFL AG-DATA is a startup incubated by Singapore's Nanyang Technological University's Innovation and Enterprise Company (NTUitive) Incubator Program. It is developing an agricultural hub that will revolutionize the feed-to-meat supply chain in China and Southeast Asia countries through data-driven solutions. EFL's mission is to empower farms through innovative data-based services that solve complex problems and enhance productivity.

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