March 14, 2008

US meat production for 2008 raised on higher Q1 output estimates

The total forecast for 2008 US meat production has been raised, reflective of higher first quarter slaughter forecasts, with pork increasing by 90 million pounds, beef up by 135 million pounds and chicken expanding by 150 million pounds, the USDA's Economic Research Service said.

US pork production forecast for this year has been raised by 90 million pounds from last month, up 1,192 million pounds or 5 percent on-year.

However, feed needs are not expected to change since much of the increase in hogs for slaughter will come from Canada.

Broiler production this year is projected to rise by 150 million pounds from last February's 36,975 million, up from 36,126 million in 2007.

Forecasts have been increased for the first half of the year on large January slaughter numbers, with egg set and chick placement data that are above last year.

However, second-half of the year broiler production forecasts are lower due to anticipated high feed prices and the steady weakening of broiler prices during the year, with reduced incentives for expansion.

Meanwhile, beef production forecast is up 135 million pounds from last month due to higher-than-expected first quarter cow slaughter.

Cattle slaughter in 2008 is seen to be higher than last month, but not enough to make changes in feed needs.

Milk production this year was raised by 0.1 billion pounds to 190.7 billion, up from 185.6 billion in 2007. Producers are seen to continuously respond to the strong returns in 2007, although high feed prices are likely to slow the rate of gain in milk per cow.