March 13, 2006

Brazil's Cerealpar lowers 2005/06 soy estimate to 57 million tonnes

Private brokerage firm Cerealpar Corretora de Cereais of Parana state, Brazil, said the country's 2005/06 soy harvest should come in at 57 million tonnes, down slightly from its last estimate, because of weather and crop disease concerns.

Cerealpar estimated a 57.6 million tonne 2005/06 soy harvest back in October.

Steve Cachia, an analyst at Cerealpar, said Asian soybean rust and excessive rains in Mato Grosso, coupled with dry weather in pockets of Parana and Bahia states, led to the production estimate reduction.

Cerealpar's numbers fall in line with estimates released this week by the Brazilian Census Bureau (IBGE) that also suggested a 57-million-tonne 2005/06 harvest. IBGE's monthly estimate was down 2.5 percent from its January estimate of 58.5 million tonnes.

Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp (Conab) is currently revisiting its January estimate of 58.1 million tonnes in the expectation that it should be smaller on account of dry weather problems in Parana and Bahia. Conabs new estimate will come out March 20.

Most estimates have been revised downward, with the exception of the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Association's (Abiove) Wednesday estimate of a 57.6 million tonne 2005/06 soy crop, up from the group's last three monthly estimates of 57.1 million tonnes. Abiove's number is an average of the estimates made by individual member firms.