March 11, 2004

 

 

US Soy Exports Smallest In Five Years

 

Soy exports from the United States will be limited to 890 million bushels (24.2 million tonnes) this marketing year, the lowest tally since 1998/99, despite a smaller crop in Brazil, the US Department of Agriculture said.

 

Smaller soybean exports would ration tight U.S. supplies stemming from last year's drought-shortened crop, and allow a slight expansion in soybean crushing, to 1.465 billion bushels (39.9 million tonnes). USDA forecast a minimal 125 million bushels (3.41 million tonnes) - less than a three-week supply -- will be left in warehouses when the new crop is ready for harvest.

 

At 890 million bushels, U.S. soybean exports would be 10 million bushels smaller than forecast a month ago, besides being 15 percent smaller than last season and the smallest since 804 million bushels in 1998/99.

 

High U.S. prices will discourage sales to Europe and "to China for the balance of the marketing year," USDA said. At the same time, USDA pegged Brazil's soybean crop at 59.5 million tonnes, or 2.18 billion bushels, down 1.5 million tonnes from its February estimate, but still a record.

 

Brazil's soybean exports would drop by 2.2 million tonnes, to 24.5 million tonnes, or 899 million bushels.

 

Analyst Stewart Ramsey of the consulting firm Global Insight said high U.S. prices might lure imports of soybeans or soybean products. Poultry feeders in the U.S. Southeast already say they will import 190,000 tones of soymeal.

 

With the spring planting season approaching, USDA said growers were pocketing the highest average farm-gate prices for corn and soybeans since 1996/97, and that is expected to inspire more plantings. USDA will release its annual "prospective plantings" report , based on a survey of farmers, on March 31.

 

"I think interest now shifts pretty much to the new crop," said private consultant John Schnittker. He pointed to concern about the U.S. winter wheat crop, planted during dry weather, and tight supplies worldwide.

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