March 11, 2004

Argentina's 2003-04 Soy Output Expected To Increase

Argentina should still produce a record soybean crop this year despite recent concerns over the poor weather conditions in South America, according to Cesar Rebella, director of the National Institute of Climate and Water, or INTA.
 
"This year's production will surely surpass that of the previous year," Rebella said. "A recent cycle of rain, especially rain from this past weekend, has helped to repair the crop from any damage suffered because of the drought."
 
While soil moisture levels are lower than most farmers would like, the soy crop has received some timely rains over the course of the past two weeks, and in particular very good rainfall last weekend, according to Jeff Thompson of Global Weather Services.
 
"Most of the soy belt received between 25 to 50 millimeters of rain from that event, which really improved the growing conditions and reduced crop stress," Thompson said. "The soy crop is one of those crops that has proven it can survive and have surprisingly good yields in less than ideal conditions throughout the growing season, as long as the crop receives timely, good rainfall at the key flowering and pod filling stages of development. This is what has happened to both the main and double-cropped soy fields of Argentina this season."
 
Last year, Argentina produced a record 34.8 million metric tons of soybeans, according to Agriculture Secretariat data. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that Argentina produced 35.5 million tons a year ago.
 
Estimates for 2003-04 output range from 34 million tons at the low end to 36.5 million at the high end. Secretariat sources have said, unofficially, that production will total between 35 million and 37 million tons.
 
Whatever the case, planted area for 2003-04 soybeans is already up from a year ago, according to all estimates.
 
The Secretariat has put area at 13.957 million hectares compared with 12.6 million a year ago. And the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange has forecast area at 14.4 million hectares, compared with 12.8 million a year earlier.
 
Farmers are just beginning to harvest the 2003-04 crop, according to the exchange. As of Saturday, they had collected about 1% of the crop.
 
Argentine soybeans are normally planted between October and January and are harvested between March and July.