March 10, 2008

 

ASA weekly: US soy complex lower on collapse of Malaysian palm oil and Chinese soyoil futures


 

The collapse occurred amidst talks that China was selling huge quantities of soy oil from state reserves.

 

There have also been reports that purchases of South American soy oil are sold back into overseas market.

 

The weak soy oil futures are moving opposite to the surging petroleum futures, yet soy oil futures had far outrun levels that could be justified by the energy markets, analysts said. 

 

March soy futures closed down US$17.45, finishing at US$530.21; May lost US$18.28, closing at US$535.99; and July was down US$17.82, ending at US$540.49.

 

March soymeal decreased US$9.70 closing at US$404.54; May was US$12.90 lower, finishing at US$408.18; and July soymeal closed down US$11.13 ending at US$412.04.

 

March soy oil decreased US$62.83 to finish at US$1404.33; May was down US$44.09, closing at US$1440.27; and July was US$44.09 higher, closing at US$1456.14.

 

EU underscores importance of GM-free soy

 

EU once again reiterated the importance of GM-free soy as Renaud Layadi, international network manager at the Brittany Regional Council, spoke in France last week.

 

Layadi spoke to the GMFree Regions European Network. He told delegates of the network that the continuation of GM-free feed and food products was vital to food producers, and that a major role was played by soy products.

 

Soy is the most significant import to the EU, with 30 percent of the globally traded soy, equivalent to 100 million tonnes, coming into the EU each year.

 

Most of the soy imports come from the US, Brazil and Argentina, accounting for 85 percent of the volume.

 

Of the 100 million tonnes only 4 million tonnes is for food use, the rest goes to feed use in one form or another.

 

Soy and soy products are needed by all farming systems and choice and availability of non-GM soybeans will be major challenges for the future, Layadi said.

 

China more vocal on the country's need for soy imports
 

The Chinese government has recently said it would encourage the import of soy oil to meet domestic demand.

 

Wei Jianguo, China's vice commerce minister, said the country would import goods with proper policies, without elaborating on them.

 

China's Ministry of Finance has decided to keep the import tax on soy and soy products entering the country at 1 percent until the end of September 2008.

 

Meanwhile, the import tax on rapeseed and rapeseed oil into China remains at 9 percent, putting rapeseed sales at a disadvantage to soy.

 

Soy oil futures have continued to charge higher lately amid talks of large ongoing Chinese soy and soy oil purchases.

 

China's soy oil and rapeseed oil cash prices also have risen sharply in recent weeks.

 

However, China's combined imports of soy, rapeseed and palm oil through the first four months of the marketing year have not exceeded last year's level by a substantial amount and actually were below year-ago levels in December and January.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance

 

United States 

Argentina

Brazil

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Soybeans

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

6,960

12,229

15,589

174

334

2,264

1,638

2,252

2,578

 Production

83,368

86,770

70,605

40,500

47,200

47,000

57,000

59,000

62,000

 Imports

92

246

163

1,013

2,100

2,200

40

60

100

 Crush

47,324

49,160

49,805

32,748

35,600

38,750

28,756

30,500

29,400

 Exports

25,579

30,428

27,080

7,130

10,250

10,500

24,770

25,300

30,400

 Other

5,288

4,068

4,447

1,475

1,520

1,620

2,900

2,934

2,950

 Usage

78,191

83,656

81,332

41,353

47,370

50,870

56,426

58,734

62,750

   Carryout

12,229

15,589

5,025

334

2,264

594

2,252

2,578

1,928

Soymeal

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

156

285

318

1,686

1,996

1,696

640

794

766

 Production

37,416

39,033

39,448

25,582

27,718

30,425

22,300

23,637

22,755

 Domestic use

30,114

31,171

32,024

574

618

645

10,073

11,000

11,220

 Net Exports

7,173

7,829

7,470

24,698

27,400

29,764

12,073

12,665

11,620

 Usage

37,287

39,000

39,494

25,272

28,018

30,409

22,146

23,665

22,840

   Carryout

285

318

272

1,996

1,696

1,712

794

766

681

Soybean oil

thousand tonnes

 Carryin

771

1,366

1,317

385

487

520

248

300

286

 Production

9,248

9,292

9,421

6,169

6,810

7,400

5,521

5,850

5,641

 Domestic use

8,146

8,502

9,026

402

600

985

3,172

3,455

3,540

 Net exports

507

839

731

5,665

6,177

6,435

2,297

2,409

2,167

 Usage

8,653

9,341

9,757

6,067

6,777

7,420

5,469

5,864

5,707

   Carryout

1,366

1,317

981

487

520

500

300

286

220

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 28 February 2008

Country

Commodity

New Sales

Accum. Exports

 

Country

Commodity

New Sales

Accum. Exports

Canada

Soybeans

2.20

103.20

 

Jamaica

Soymeal

1.80

40.20

China

Soybeans

15.40

9140.70

 

Mexico

Soymeal

12.80

506.30

Costa Rica

Soybeans

9.90

132.50

 

New Zealand

Soymeal

6.00

5.00

Egypt

Soybeans

7.60

497.80

 

Philippines

Soymeal

0.60

306.50

Germany

Soybeans

59.40

811.50

 

Salvador

Soymeal

3.30

67.70

Italy

Soybeans

1.60

132.20

 

Trinidad

Soymeal

11.10

10.20

Japan

Soybeans

107.60

1464.30

 

Venezuela

Soymeal

11.50

144.10

Korea, Rep.

Soybeans

44.90

336.00

 

Barbados

Soyoil

0.80

0.30

Mexico

Soybeans

61.60

1797.20

 

Colombia

Soyoil

5.10

25.70

Netherlands

Soybeans

79.00

979.50

 

Korea, Rep.

Soyoil

11.00

30.80

Singapore

Soybeans

3.60

1.00

 

Mexico

Soyoil

2.60

68.80

Spain

Soybeans

68.80

521.60

 

Nicaragua

Soyoil

0.40

7.20

Taiwan

Soybeans

31.50

1008.20

 

Salvador

Soyoil

0.20

6.30

Canada

Soymeal

12.80

552.00

 

 

 

 

 

Colombia

Soymeal

3.80

176.10

 

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Costa Rica

Soymeal

4.90

18.60

 

Commodity

Outstanding Sales

Accum. Exports

New Sales

Dom. Rep.

Soymeal

13.80

195.90

 

Soybeans

6,137.70

19,708.50

202.70

Egypt

Soymeal

5.30

46.10

 

Soymeal

1,619.60

3,251.50

75.50

Indonesia

Soymeal

1.20

59.60

 

Soyoil

218.40

509.00

6.80

 

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